‘Multi-party contest in Hougang? Unlikely’

"I have no intention of contesting in the Hougang by-election if it happens," National Solidarity Party (NSP) member Nicole Seah posted on her Facebook page. "Anyone else who does so is not taking into consideration the work of Workers' Party MP Low Thia Khiang in retaining one of Singapore's longest-serving opposition wards."

Seah's statement puts paid to speculation of her possible involvement in the contest. However, her party itself is keeping its options open. Its secretary-general, Hazel Poa, when asked by reporters in February about the NSP contesting in Hougang, said the party was "unable to give a definitive reply… as its Central Executive Committee needs to meet and decide on whether to contest."

The Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) has also said it will not be contesting the by-election, explaining that its "primary concern is that the constituency of Hougang remains in the hands of the opposition." However, the SDP does not seem to rule out entirely its participation in the contest. It said "if the circumstances remain the way they are, the SDP will not contest in a by-election in Hougang." The party did not explain what it meant by "if the circumstances remain they way they are."

The other opposition parties have yet to state unequivocally their positions on whether they will contest Hougang.

The most likely scenario which will eventually emerge is that the Hougang by-election will be a two-party contest between the People's Action Party (PAP) and the Workers' Party (WP), for several reasons.

The WP secretary general, Low Thia Khiang, holds much influence in the single-member constituency, having helmed it for 20 years, from 1991 to 2011. Low's ties with Hougang residents remain strong despite Low leaving the ward in 2011 to contest in the neighbouring Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC).

The Yaw Shin Leong saga is also unlikely to dent the support, respect and trust residents have for Low, and indeed for the WP itself. With the inclusion of "star" MP Chen Show Mao and the popular Pritam Singh, along with party chairman, Sylvia Lim, the WP has a huge advantage over other opposition parties, and indeed the PAP, when it comes to the contest in Hougang. Any candidate the WP fields in the by-election will be able to ride on these names and the reputation of the WP, a brand which is head and shoulders above other opposition parties'.

It would thus be folly for any other opposition party to wade into Hougang to try its luck and precipitate a multi-cornered fight. Any opposition party which does so risks putting itself in the line of WP's fire — and ire — come the next General Election. All bets, on WP "giving face" to such a party or parties in the next elections, will then be off.

Having said that, the WP's contest in the Moulmein Kallang GRC in GE 2011 seems to have left a sore point in the NSP, particularly for the NSP's former secretary general, Goh Meng Seng. Goh, who led the NSP in the elections last May, has apparently been nursing a grudge since. He has talked of an "ultimate form of retribution" for the WP if the NSP were to contest in the Hougang by-election and cause the "greatest" impact on the WP candidate.

He said "NSP may be justified to join the by-election because it would be a form of 'revenge' against the Worker's Party" for "muscling" in on Moulmein-Kallang GRC, which the NSP had wanted to contest, in last May's elections. At that time, the NSP withdrew and ceded the GRC to the WP, which eventually lost to the PAP's team there.

But talk of "revenge" and "retribution" is just that — talk. Goh no longer leads the NSP and indeed is not even in the party's Central Executive Committee. It is unclear if he is a member of the NSP itself. Thus, his preference to inflict damage on the WP with a three-cornered fight in Hougang will unlikely come to pass.

The NSP's new leadership, under Poa, will take a longer-term and rational approach, rather than be clouded by emotional rhetoric and personal vendetta. Seah's affirmation that she will not contest Hougang out of respect for Low clearly shows the difference in positions between Goh's and hers. Seah's position is also likely to reflect that of the NSP, too.

It is highly unlikely that other opposition parties will want to dip their feet into Hougang. The WP is still seen by the majority of Singaporeans as the most credible opposition party. Anecdotal evidence from the last two general elections suggests that voters prefer WP candidates to contest in their constituencies, rather than candidates from other opposition parties. One suspects that this preference among voters has not changed.

Any other party which chooses to contest in the WP stronghold of Hougang will do well to keep this in mind. The prospect of a non-WP opposition candidate losing his or her election deposit, and along with it doing irreparable damage to his or her party's reputation, is something to be seriously considered.

The example of the Singapore Democratic Alliance's (SDA) secretary general, Desmond Lim, is instructive. Lim was involved in the only 3-cornered fight in the last elections — in Punggol East SMC. Lim went head to head with the PAP and the WP candidates. It resulted in Lim garnering a measly 4.5 per cent of the vote, and in the process losing his election deposit. The WP's candidate, Lee Li Lian, received 41 per cent, and the PAP's Michael Palmer 54.5 per cent.

Similarly, any other opposition party which chooses to contest in a three-cornered or multi-cornered fight in Hougang will most probably face the same fate as Lim. And as Lim found out, the damage done to his party is more serious than even he perhaps envisaged.

Even the PAP, with all its firepower and resources, will have an uphill task in doing better than the 35 per cent its candidate achieved in Hougang in the last elections.

Non-WP opposition parties will do well to consider the odds of even coming close to a victory in Hougang. The odds in their favour do not look good at all. Rhetoric and bravado only gets you so far. The reality on the ground is what matters — and it points to a WP victory in the Hougang by-election, no matter how many parties contest there.

Andrew helms publichouse.sg as Editor-in-Chief. His writings have been reproduced in other publications, including the Australian Housing Journal in 2010. He was nominated by Yahoo! Singapore as one of Singapore's most influential media persons in 2011.