Who will be Singapore’s Elected President?

If you were a betting man, which of the Presidential candidates would you place your money on?

Three former Nominated Members of Parliament (NMPs) were asked this question at a panel discussion held at the National University of Singapore's (NUS) law campus on Thursday evening, and two of them responded with former GIC chairman Dr Tony Tan.

When asked to explain their choices, former NMPs Viswa Sadasivan and Siew Kum Hong attributed Dr Tan's likelihood of winning to the conservative electoral mass who, in Viswa's words, "are still very much in favour of the status quo."

"The conservative portions of our population are still very much in favour of... keeping things as they are," he said. "I do believe that while we have evolved as a society, there is still a significant portion of Singaporeans who are conservative, and I think the conservatives will vote for no change."

Corporate lawyer Siew Kum Hong added that judging from the results of the May General Election polls, Dr Tan is likely to win over the conservative 60 per cent vote obtained by the People's Action Party in the election.

"(Dr Tony Tan) won't get 60 per cent, but I think he is going to get enough to bring him over the line as the winner," he said, going as far as to add that he would more likely poll below half of the votes.

"If it was a two-horse race, it will really be too close to call. But it isn't a two-horse race, and between the other three candidates, they are going to split the vote such that none will be able to match (Dr Tony Tan)," the 36-year-old added.

Viswa, 52, the CEO and co-founder of media strategic consultancy Strategic Moves, also pointed out that spoilt votes "won't be insignificant" in this election for two possible reasons: because people seem unsure about who to vote for, and also because they may not consider their vote in the Presidential Election as important as it was in the May polls.

"There are people I've spoken to who say they don't want to vote on principle because they don't know enough about each one of them, even with all the various forums, because they have not really exhibited what their positions are," he said.

"Spoilt votes, in this case, I believe will favour Tony Tan," he concluded.

The two panelists, alongside NUS sociology associate professor Paulin Straughan, were also asked for their thoughts on the impact of the various candidates on Singapore's political landscape, should each of them be elected as President.

While none were able to offer comment on the impact of Tan Kin Lian being elected, the three former NMPs exchanged varied views on the impact of Tan Jee Say, Dr Tan Cheng Bock and Dr Tony Tan coming in first at Saturday's polls.

For Tan Jee Say, there was agreement between the three panelists that his election and role played as President would be a "radical" one, although Siew pointed out that the government will still be able to function as per normal, since he would not have executive power.

"What's the worst that can happen? I've thought it through... I don't think you'll get deadlocked in the worst-case scenario being bandied around, just maybe more interesting news stories, maybe a little more excitement in the blogosphere, but the government will still function," he said.

Siew added that even if the government is in disagreement with Tan's stance on issues, it is most likely to simply try to tide Tan's five-year term without having to go to him for decisions he exercises power over, such as the reserves and the appointment of key position holders.

He also said that Dr Tan Cheng Bock and Dr Tony Tan are not likely to change much in the government, and are more likely to play the role of the President as conceptualised by the government.

Viswa, however, mentioned Dr Tan Cheng Bock's increased likelihood to raise issues and try to negotiate them, possibly also lobbying other Members of Parliament to further his cause.

"I know there are certain issues very close to his (Dr Tan Cheng Bock) heart and I think he will raise those issues, but in a different way," he said.

"I think he will leverage a lot more using his relationship and his capacity to lobby in some method of familiarity, and I guess his age and the fact that he has a track record on the ground gives him a certain level of credentials when he is negotiating," he added, saying that this was something that gave Dr Tan Cheng Bock an edge over Tan Jee Say, whom he said lacks the familiarity with key players to know who to lobby with, and who not to.

"It's a fine art, and I've seen Dr Tan Cheng Bock able to do that," he said.