#GE2015: The irrelevance of three-cornered fights
COMMENTARY BY PEH SHING HUEI
The trio of three-cornered contests in General Election 2015 have drawn a fair bit of attention from Singaporeans after Nomination Day on Sept 1.
Unfortunately, in the local context, these battles are almost completely inconsequential and irrelevant.
Combing through election results since 1965, I could not find a single instance where a multi-cornered contest in Singapore’s parliamentary elections made a material impact on the result.
Yes, votes were split. But the margins were never of a quantum required to tilt the scores another way. Whoever won in a three-cornered fight would have won in a straight fight too.
In short, contrary to a persistent view, three-way fights do not necessarily help the ruling People’s Action Party candidate.
For instance, not many would remember that J. B. Jeyaretnam won Anson in 1981 in a three-cornered fight.
Of course, it doesn't hinder the PAP too.
Case Study A
1980 General Election - Tanjong Pagar
In most cases, such bouts barely made a dent on the ruling party’s performance.
Lee Kuan Yew (PAP) : 11,730 votes (92.74 %)
Lee Mun Hung (UPF) : 363 votes (2.87 %)
Wee Lai Seng Johnny (UF): 555 votes (4.39 %)
Case Study B
1972 General Election - Kampong Chai Chee
Even when the PAP’s vote share dips significantly in a threesome, it has maintained a majority. This three-way battle is the closest after independence.
Sha’ari Bin Tadin (PAP) : 7,458 votes (52.39 %)
Ng Yang Choo (BS) : 4,188 votes (29.42 %)
Hashim Bin Yadi (WP) : 2,590 votes (18.19 %)
Case Study C
1997 General Election – Bukit Gombak
When the opposition has some internecine battles, it usually spells trouble for the smaller opposition outfit. After Chiam See Tong’s loyalists left the Singapore Democratic Party to form the Singapore People’s Party, the new party sent a candidate to Bukit Gombak to challenge SDP chairman and MP Ling How Doong.
The SPP candidate came off worse and again, his entry was irrelevant as the PAP won back the seat with a handsome margin. It may be a cautionary tale for Cheo Chai Chen in MacPherson.
Ang Mong Seng (PAP) : 15,229 votes (65.14 %)
Ling How Doong (SDP) : 6,643 votes (28.42 %)
Syed Farid Wajidi (SPP): 1,506 votes (6.44 %)
Case Study D
1981 By-Election – Anson
Contrary to a persistent view, multi-cornered fights do not affect the opposition’s chances of victories. J. B. Jeyaretnam won the landmark Anson poll in a three-way contest. Check out the third candidate’s vote share. He had just 131 votes.
Lee Li Lian’s win in Punggol East in 2013 is a more recent example.
J. B. Jeyaretnam (WP) : 7,012 votes (51.93 %)
Pang Kin Hin (PAP) : 6,359 votes (47.10 %)
Harbans Singh (UPF) : 131 votes (0.97 %)
Case Study E
1992 By-Election – Marine Parade GRC
Group Representation Constituencies have seen multi-cornered contests only once – in Marine Parade GRC’s by-election in 1992. But the track record remains. Despite the larger number of voters, the “third” and “fourth” parties did not carve out enough to be a useful spoiler.
PAP : 48,965 votes (72.94 %)
SDP: 16,447 votes (24.50 %)
NSP: 950 votes (1.42 %)
SJP: 764 votes (1.14 %)
Case Study F
2011 Presidential Election
There is only one exception in Singapore’s post-independence electoral history and it is not in a parliamentary election. At the last presidential election, given Tony Tan’s narrow margin of victory over Tan Cheng Bock, one could argue that Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian were effective spoilers. But that is based on the assumption that the votes of Jee Say and Kin Lian would have gone to Cheng Bock if they did not stand for election.
Tony Tan Keng Kam : 745,693 votes (35.20 %)
Tan Cheng Bock: 738,311 votes (34.85 %)
Tan Jee Say: 530,441 votes (25.04 %)
Tan Kin Lian: 104,095 votes (4.91 %)
In short, the data is not favourable to the trio who squeezed into battle on Nomination Day on Sept 1.
Come Polling Night, the only interest in them would be a rather dreadful footnote of whether they have managed to retain their electoral deposits.
Peh Shing Huei is an author and political and media consultant. He was formerly a news editor at The Straits Times.
