ANALYSIS: After Heng Swee Keat’s stroke, what are PM’s options?
(Yahoo file photo of Heng Swee Keat during the 2015 General Election)
One of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s worst nightmares came true at 5.34pm on Thursday (12 May) as he saw his Finance Minister and the person likely to succeed him collapse in a Cabinet meeting.
Having been struck by lymphoma in 1992 and having undergone surgery for prostate cancer just last year, the Singapore leader knows how fragile life is. And how all the best plans in the world can go awry when fate strikes without a warning.
Heng Swee Keat, 53, was a clear frontrunner in the race for prime ministership. Just look at his astounding rise since his entry into politics since the General Elections in 2011.
He was made Education Minister almost immediately after, then was given the very important portfolio of Finance.
These are uncharacteristic Cabinet developments in a system that takes its time to blood political talent gingerly, assiduously and purposely for the land’s high office.
But the PM has been on a fast-drive mode as political succession was thrown out of whack because of the difficulty of getting potential ministers into the Cabinet.
Long before Lee Kuan Yew stepped aside as PM, the world knew Goh Chok Tong would be his successor. And even before Goh took the post, it was clear that Lee Hsien Loong will be the next in line.
Such meticulous planning and execution has not found a definitive successor this time round. And now this major hiccup to the PM’s succession plans.
The seriousness of Heng’s condition comes through in the Facebook posts of two senior ministers. Ng Eng Heng, a surgeon, said Heng was resuscitated in the Cabinet room where he collapsed after a stroke.
Law Minister K. Shanmugam gave an insight into the “incredible” load that the Finance Minister had been carrying: From organising a year-long effort across the country to suss out the views of Singaporeans after the ruling party’s poor performance in GE 2011 to introducing bold initiatives to move the education system away from an entrenched exam-based philosophy to finding new winners for an economy that has been losing its shine – all these were put on his shoulders.
And they must have taken their toll.
Shanmugam said as much: “I have been telling him that he was overworking so much that it will affect his health.”
At this stage, we don’t know how serious Heng’s stroke was, but it will take some time before he can resume his duties.
The PM may have to re-examine his succession plans. And he doesn’t have much time. With 2020 set as a target, he has two options:
1. He stays on as the leader after 2020 and puts the succession plans back on an even keel. He may not want to do that as that will lead to speculation that he wants to retain power for a longer period.
2. He appoints one of the two DPMs as an interim PM by 2020, especially if the doctor’s prognosis about Heng’s condition is not favourable.
That will give the Cabinet some breathing space before the next PM is chosen.
The silver lining in the dark cloud is that the PM still has a couple of pieces to move in a chess game that has begun to look bleak.
Checkmate? Not yet.
P N Balji is a veteran Singaporean journalist who is the former chief editor of TODAY newspaper, and a media consultant. The views expressed are his own.
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