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Hougang by-election: What it will really come down to

COMMENT

A by-election which was expected to be nothing more than a formality to fill a vacant seat has turned into something else.

It all started earlier this year with allegations of personal indiscretions by the Workers' Party (WP) Member of Parliament (MP), Yaw Shin Leong. Subsequently, Yaw was dismissed from the party for failing to give an account of the allegations to his party leadership. According to the law, anyone who is no longer a member of the party with which he won his parliamentary seat is deemed to have vacated that seat. Yaw's seat in the Hougang single-member constituency (SMC) was thus declared vacant on 14 February.

That set the stage for a by-election in the WP stronghold, which the party has held for more than 20 years. Speculation followed on who the WP would field to replace Yaw, and whether there will be a multi-party contest in the ward.

The rumours and speculations continued — until the Prime Minister , under whose aegis resided the power to call by-elections, made some controversial remarks regarding his discretionary powers. Speaking to the media on 15 February, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said, "On whether and when to hold a by-election in Hougang, I will consider the matter carefully."

That gave rise to questions of his discretionary powers in calling by-elections. The law clearly says that the PM must call by-elections, and that he has no power not to call one.

To settle the uncertainties, Hougang resident Vellama Marie Muthu then made an application to the courts to order the PM to call a by-election in Hougang within 3 months of the seat being vacated or any such time as the court deemed fit.

On 9 May, the President issued the Writ for Election.

The court case will be heard on 28 and 29 June in the High Court.

On Nomination Day, only two names emerged — the People's Action Party's (PAP) Desmond Choo, and the WP's Png Eng Huat — but not before the WP's own member, Poh Lee Guan, surprised everyone, including his own party leadership, when his name was released by the Election Department as one of those who were issued the Political Donations Certificate.

Poh later confirmed that he had applied for the nomination papers, without the knowledge or blessing of the WP. Poh claimed that he was a "spare tyre" for the party.

The party denied having appointed Poh as a contingency to Png. Poh, however, did not turn up on Nomination Day and WP supporters heaved a sigh of relief.

But eyebrows were raised about the ongoings within the WP — and how the party seemed not to know what its members were doing. First with Yaw and then with Poh.

As campaigning finally got under way on 16 May, many expected it to be a mundane affair. After all, Hougang is one of the smallest constituencies in Singapore and the WP was expected to waltz its way to victory, having garnered a strong 64.8% in last year's General Election in the ward.

Things took a more dramatic turn 5 days into the hustings after Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean queried why the WP did not find Png qualified enough to be appointed as one of the party's Non-constituency MP (NCMP). Png was part of the WP's East Coast team in GE 2011 which was among the best scorers among the losing teams.

The very next day, Png explained that this was because he had withdrawn his name from the ballot for the WP NCMP selection process last year. He did this because he was against the NCMP scheme and had informed party secretary general Low Thia Khiang and several Central Executive Council (CEC) members about his position.

However, the whole matter was thrown into confusion when a copy of the minutes of that selection process was leaked to the media. In it, Png's name was listed as one of those which were put up for nomination, and Png had garnered a single vote.

Before the WP could further explain this apparent contradiction, DPM Teo fired another salvo.

"WP hasn't been upfront or honest," Teo was reported to have said. "Either he was telling the truth yesterday or telling the truth today," he added, referring to Png.

At its 22 May rally in Hougang, a visibly upset Low laid out the WP selection process and explained how Png's name came to be on the ballot paper for the NCMP vote. Low said this was because Png was part of the East Coast team and as such the names of the entire team members were included.

"Whether a candidate wanted personally to be NCMP or not, the decision is not his," Low said. Holding up a copy of the ballot paper to the rally crowd, he said "personal preferences had to be set aside" and that the decision on who the party would appoint as NCMPs was "the collective decision of the CEC" of the party.

Has the WP, which had campaigned on the platform of a "First World Parliament" in last year's GE, done enough to dispel doubts which may have crept into the minds of Hougang voters about its credibility?

It has been more than a year since the elections last year, and Singaporeans and Hougang voters in particular, have had the chance to assess its performance, both in Parliament and in the constituencies it is in charge of — which include Aljunied GRC, besides Hougang SMC.

The PAP's insinuations of WP's alleged "dishonesty" may not stick with voters.

What it will all come down to, really, is how voters perceive the WP and Low's leadership in particular.

And in this, there may be some doubt in voters' minds but voters may be more willing to forgive any perceived transgressions by the WP. They understand that the WP has just gotten off the mark and that it is a long journey to resolve the imbalance in Parliament and indeed in Singapore's political system.

Hougang voters, especially, understand this perhaps better than other constituents.

Moreover, the bond between Low and residents in Hougang is a very strong one. Low is known to have walked the constituency even late at night, for example, at times surprising residents at the coffeeshops in the wee hours of the morning.

While Png may be the candidate, it is Low's reputation and relationship with residents — established over 2 decades -- which will prove decisive, perhaps more than the WP brand name itself.

As for the WP the party, the bank of goodwill it has stored up since the last elections will carry it through the controversies these past few months, even if victory on Polling Day is not an overwhelming one, as some expect.

However, this goodwill will not last very long, if the party is seen to be unable to measure up to the higher expectations Singaporeans now have of it — expectations which the party itself has raised with its campaign towards a first world parliament.

Andrew helms publichouse.sg as Editor-in-Chief. His writings have been reproduced in other publications, including the Australian Housing Journal in 2010. He was nominated by Yahoo! Singapore as one of Singapore's most influential media persons in 2011.

This article is published by Yahoo! Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd., 60 Anson Road #13-01 Mapletree Anson, Singapore 079914.