College football odds, betting: Why Boise State is the right side in the Mountain West title game
It’s conference championship week in college football, which means we’ve got a fun week ahead with a handful of games showcasing potential playoff-bound teams, including Utah vs. USC in Las Vegas. Week 14 of college football is sure to be a thrill, but there’s only one favorite that stands out. Each week, I focus first on a favorite or a game total, and those picks are 11-3 on the season after splitting last week’s two favorites in Kansas State and LSU.
Boise State -3 vs. Fresno State
While most conference championship games are played on a neutral site, the Mountain West title game will remain a home game for the Boise State Broncos. Playing on that blue turf at Albertsons Stadium remains one of the best home-field advantages in sports. This season, the Broncos are 5-1 SU at home with the one loss coming against BYU, which needed an improbable, acrobatic catch for the go-ahead score with under two minutes remaining in the game.
Aside from the blue turf, Boise State possesses a top-10 defense in the country, holding opponents to 4.7 yards per play. For comparison, Georgia’s defense holds opponents to 4.5 per play. While the Broncos sit just inside the top 50 in takeaways with 13 interceptions on the season, eight of those came at home.
The Broncos' defense could spell trouble for Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener. The Bulldogs, in seven games with Haener behind center, have faced just two defenses inside the top 40. Fresno State had a loss to Oregon State in Week 2 and then a narrow midseason win over San Diego State. In both home games, Haener totaled four touchdowns and two interceptions. Haener also threw three interceptions against Boise last season. If turnovers are the name of the game, you back Boise State … at home … every time.
Offensively, the Broncos' running game (26th nationally) should have a field day against the Bulldogs, with RB George Holani leading the charge against a rush defense ranked 95th that allows 4.9 yards per carry on the road. Holani has rushed for at least 100 yards in six games and is averaging 5.3 yards per rush this season.
Back the Broncos to trounce the Bulldogs for the Mountain West title.
