DeepSeek disruption: how far will US go to keep its advanced AI lead over China?

The US holds a "durable lead" over China in deploying advanced artificial intelligence technology at scale and harnessing civilian resources for military use, a leading AI policy expert has argued, as Washington weighs its response to the emergence of Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek.

"The US has a pretty durable lead in this technology, not just in its ability to adopt it throughout the entire economy at scale, but also in its ability to mobilise civilian resources for military advantage," said Jeffrey Ding, an assistant professor at George Washington University.

Jeffrey Ding, assistant professor at George Washington University. Photo: Handout alt=Jeffrey Ding, assistant professor at George Washington University. Photo: Handout>

Speaking on Monday at the launch of a new China-focused think tank at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Ding argued that China's civil-military integration still lagged behind that of the United States.

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"China does not have its leading tech companies providing cloud computing services towards its military," he said, citing it as an example of the gap.

Ding, known for his "diffusion capacity" argument - which emphasises that AI dominance depends on a nation's ability to adopt and integrate AI, not just innovate - made his remarks as policymakers debate whether the US should be more active in constraining China's AI development.

The Hangzhou-based company DeepSeek sent shock waves through the global tech market last month after it released two powerful new AI models built at a fraction of the cost and computing power used by American firms to create the technology underpinning generative AI services such as ChatGPT.

American chipmaker Nvidia saw a record stock plunge last week followed by a partial recovery.

Those who believe China is rapidly catching up to the US favour more aggressive policies to restrict China's AI development, particularly amid the global race towards "artificial general intelligence" (AGI), a hypothetical state in which AI can perform most tasks at least as well as a human.

According to Jim Mitre, director of the Rand Corporation's programme in global and emerging risks, the US needs to prepare for a scenario in which AGI attainment is imminent - a prospect that remains widely debated.

For Mitre, who also spoke at SAIS on Monday, this includes the US "unequivocally" working to slow down China's AI development in line with certain policies from former US president Joe Biden's administration that put export controls on high-end chips to China.

Last week, a bipartisan group of lawmakers pushed the administration of US President Donald Trump to consider additional controls on chips, including Nvidia's H20, a lower-end chip outside export controls.

But for Ding, there may be "trade-offs" to policies, such as broader chip controls, that assume there is a sprint rather than a marathon to superintelligence between the two AI superpowers.

These include reducing China's desire to cooperate with the US on managing AI risk and safety, as well as significantly weakening the Chinese economy.

"A stable China's probably better for US national security than an unstable China," he said.

Ding said he would support US policy to slow China's AI developments in military applications and human rights. But he noted that current restrictions on high-end chips suggested a broader economic containment given that militaries typically relied primarily on legacy chips instead of high-end chips.

"Our set of policy options differs dramatically if we have a much better sense that the US is in a position of strength here, rather than being constantly obsessed with [how] China is going to catch up and overtake us in this technology," he said.

SAIS launched its new Institute for America, China and the Future of Global Affairs on Monday as part of an effort to "add rigour and reason" to policy discussions on China.

A report released on Monday by the institute examines several domestic issue areas affected by the intensifying US-China competition, including manufacturing, emerging technology, education and foreign influence activities.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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