Will Donald Trump's return to power deepen divisions between Canada and China?

Donald Trump's return to the White House is expected to create new challenges in Canada's relationship with China.

Regardless of who forms the next government after this year's election, where the opposition Conservatives are strongly favoured to win, the country is likely to fall in line with Trump's position on major trade and security issues while treading a careful line between the two superpowers, according to observers.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced he was stepping down on Monday, has seen relations with China deteriorate sharply during his nine years in power despite his initial hopes for stronger ties.

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Most observers agree relations never recovered after Canada's arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the Huawei Technologies executive, on a US warrant, in late 2018 and China's subsequent detention of two Canadians, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, on spying charges.

Trudeau is stepping down at a time when Trump is not only threatening 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian imports but repeatedly saying the country should become the 51st US state.

"The turbulence in Canadian politics at the moment is considerable. Fear of China is now joined by a palpable fear of Trump's 'America first' [revival]," said Paul Evans, professor emeritus in the school of public policy and global affairs at the University of British Columbia.

He said managing the relationship with its southern neighbour was a much higher priority for Canada than finding ways to live with China.

"A Cold War-like consensus is now well rooted in Canadian thinking and will be difficult to reverse in the context of an assertive and repressive China and an aggressive and revisionist US," he said.

"Canada-China political relations have entered a long winter that will not be easy to reverse. In the eyes of many in the media, public and government circles, this is the long-term situation," he said. "In other words, this is not just a change in the weather or seasons but something closer to climate change."

Trudeau initially wanted to deepen engagement with China over trade, but his government later moved to distance itself from Beijing to avoid being seen as soft.

"This alignment with much of the Washington consensus on China as seen in Ottawa's 2021 Indo-Pacific strategy was partly tactical domestic politics, partly the product of American pressure, but mainly a recalculation of the strategic setting," Evans said.

Jeremy Paltiel, a political-science professor at Carleton University in Ottawa said Trudeau's handling of relations with China went from "optimism to cold".

"The turning point was the rejection by [Chinese President] Xi Jinping of Trudeau's 'progressive trade agenda' at the end of 2017," which left the Canadian leader to grapple with Trump's "bullying" on trade largely on its own, he said.

The arrest of Meng Wanzhou in December 2018 marked a turning point in relations between the two countries. Photo: AFP alt=The arrest of Meng Wanzhou in December 2018 marked a turning point in relations between the two countries. Photo: AFP>

"[Since Meng, Spavor and Kovrig were all released], relations with China have stabilised but never improved to the level they were at before 2017," said Paltiel, a former visiting professor at Tsinghua University.

"There is certainly room for improvement, but given the pressure that Canada is facing ... it is hard to see how a reset is possible, until and unless there is a complete turnaround in Sino-American relations, which is unlikely."

Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of international relations and ­director of the China Institute at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, said the fallout from the affair still cast a long shadow.

"It never recovered, and notably Trudeau was not serious about improving Canada-China relations, unlike leaders of other US allies such as Australia, Japan and France. Meanwhile, anti-China sentiment has been growing in Canada," he said.

"And unfortunately, Trudeau and Xi never developed any close relationship that could have helped ease bilateral tensions."

These tensions came to the surface again when Xi had a tense encounter with Trudeau on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali in November 2022.

Video footage showed the Chinese leader apparently complaining about the "inappropriate" leaking of the details of a private conversation and describing Trudeau as "very naive" at one point.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been described as someone who happily traffics in anti-elitist tropes. Photo: AFP alt=Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been described as someone who happily traffics in anti-elitist tropes. Photo: AFP>

The Chinese foreign ministry insisted nothing Xi said should be interpreted as a dressing down or a threat and instead blamed Trudeau's government for the steep decline in relations.

Sourabh Gupta, a senior policy specialist with the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said Trudeau's handling of relations with China had been "terrible".

"Granted, he was dealt a difficult hand with Trump's arrival in office. But rather than strive to maintain a degree of autonomy in Canada's ties with China and expend political capital to protect and preserve the bilateral relationship, he was only too quick to bandwagon with every extreme American demand and throw China under the bus," he said.

He compared him with his father, Pierre Trudeau, who became the first Canadian prime minister to visit China in 1973.

"What Trudeau Senior accomplished on China in the 1970s, Trudeau Junior has undone that over the past nine years," he said.

Gupta said the relationship between the two sides was going nowhere. "It will remain grounded and fail to achieve take-off velocity in 2025 or during the rest of this decade. Whoever turns out to be Trudeau's successor, he or she will be no Anthony Albanese," he said, referring to the Australian prime minister who has been working to mend ties.

He said Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader who is leading in the polls, was "cut from a populist cloth not dissimilar to that of his American counterparts".

"Like Trump, he happily traffics in anti-elitist tropes. He will be even more eager than Trudeau to fall in line with the American position on China," he said.

It would probably be more challenging for Beijing to deal with Poilievre than Trudeau, as Trump would once again cause dissension and cracks between Canada and China, Gupta said.

"Beijing's strategy should be to haul the China-Canada relationship one inch above failing grade and let it stew thereafter indefinitely until brighter prospects arise on the horizon - which may yet be many, many years removed. And of course in the interim, operate by norms-bound means in its day-to-day dealings with Ottawa - which means taking no hostages and suchlike," he said.

Paltiel agreed that a Conservative government would be even more eager to placate Trump.

"Canada is entirely vulnerable to US trade pressure and will try to preserve a margin of manoeuvre while generally yielding. This is what we saw in the case of EV tariffs and Huawei," he said.

Unlike Australia, which depends on China for trade and the US for security, Canada is far more dependent on the US economically.

"Canada will do all it can to save the rules-based trading order and will likely try to work with the EU to minimise the impact of [Trump's] Maga trade policies. Jumping into bed with China would only inflame trade hawks in Washington further," he said.

"However, if there is room for a multilateral response to Trump trade policies, Canada will very likely participate, certainly if the Liberals are still in power. A Conservative government may try to bandwagon with Trump and even respond lukewarmly to multilateral defensive initiatives."

But under Trump, Canada will find that its "freeriding" on the US for security is not tolerated and it may have to increase defence spending significantly, according to Paltiel.

Justin Trudeau had an awkward encounter with Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali. Photo: Reuters alt=Justin Trudeau had an awkward encounter with Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali. Photo: Reuters>

"For the foreseeable future, the watchword in Sino-Canadian relations will be security, with economics, trade and investment a distant second," he said.

Paltiel added that Canada might have to significantly boost spending on its defences in the Arctic and while the Conservatives had been "reluctant to endorse this" they would probably have to do so if they come to power.

"Canadian governments of whatever persuasion will look to preserve a close alliance with the US as a priority commitment."

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on US allies and rivals alike, and Evans said a key issue for Canada was how to maintain a rules-based multilateral trading system if the US started unravelling it intentionally.

"The idea that China is an alternative trading partner to the US is deeply mistaken. If, as is likely, US-China tensions deepen, Canada is almost certain to move in lockstep with the US in areas like tech and research restrictions, friendshoring in critical minerals and other 'strategic' sectors, plus defence spending increases," he said.

Although both Canada and China will not like what comes out of Trump's administration, Ottawa is unlikely to have the "inclination or leverage" to champion inclusive multilateral institutions in the Asia-Pacific region and other foreign policy agendas that Trump loathes.

But he said the one hope for improving relations was the deep personal ties between China and Canada, which is home to more than 1.7 million people of Chinese origin. He also said there was strong public support for better relations in areas such as universities, tourism and immigration.

Zhu was also pessimistic about Ottawa's ties with Beijing after Trump returned, saying his recent comments about making Canada a US state had deepened his unpopularity north of the border.

"[Canadians] do not like Trump's pressure tactics, they do not like tariffs, and they do not like to be blamed for crimes, drugs and immigration problems in the United States," he said.

"However, it does not necessarily mean that Canada and China will work together to push back against Trump's assertiveness. After all, there is little trust between Canada and China today."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.