Expect more lockdowns until low-paid workers are able to isolate without fear of poverty

Last week we got a taste of things to come. As we head for winter without a Covid-19 vaccine, we will all need to get used to a new routine where, every Thursday, the latest round of local restrictions is announced. Greater Manchester was not the first and we certainly won’t be the last.

When the secretary of state for health called late on Thursday afternoon to inform me of his intentions, I was not surprised.

Having successfully argued for more access to local data, we can now see most of what the government sees and, last week, we were presented with a dramatically different picture from the one we saw a week before.

From nine of our 10 boroughs showing a falling infection rate, we now had an increase across those same nine and a high number of cases in the only one to record a fall.

Related: Amid the sorrow over cancelled Eid plans, British Muslims should feel let down too | Aina Khan

Digging more deeply into the data, we were struck by a number of things. First, we had gone from isolated hotspots to more general transmission affecting affluent and deprived communities alike. Second, the speed of increase was worrying: Trafford, for instance, went from nine new cases per 100,000 population to 40. Third, and more encouragingly, the only borough to record a fall – Rochdale – had already been subject to similar restrictions to the ones the health secretary proposed.

Throughout this crisis, I have argued for a precautionary, health-first approach. I said at the end of May that lockdown was released too soon and I think the difficult position we are in today is linked to that. But we are where we are and, when Matt Hancock called, my first instincts were to support his move and introduce it as swiftly as possible. Not easy for anyone, I know. But once the initial shock has subsided, I hope the public will accept the logic: a modest restriction now to prevent a lockdown later.

That said, I know it won’t feel modest to many in the Muslim community, whose plans for Eid have been disrupted. I can honestly say to them that I would do exactly the same on Christmas Eve if presented with the same data.

What the government didn’t get right was the communications. Time and again, ministers have appeared before the cameras making announcements and then there is a gap of hours, even days, before the detail appears. This happened again last Thursday night and threw many lives into chaos. This has to stop.

Going forward, full supporting documentation must be made available the very minute any public statement is made. We also need to see an end to the mixed messages. Can you imagine how it must have felt to be one of the people shielding in Greater Manchester listening to the prime minister announcing the end of shielding on Friday lunchtime? So just hours after a government request to people to stay within their households, they remove home deliveries from the most vulnerable people and effectively tell them they will need to start going to the shops again.

This is plain wrong. The government needs to correct it by immediately extending shielding in the areas affected by restrictions until they are lifted and providing funding to councils to continue home food and medication deliveries.

But the biggest changes needed are in the NHS’s test-and-trace system and giving financial help for those asked to self-isolate.

People are asking: why is it that the poorest places in the north are the most affected by this virus? Some on the right are seeking to put the blame on the people themselves and on different communities. We must not let them do this.

The truth is, in the areas under restrictions, there are large numbers of people in low-paid, insecure jobs who cannot self-isolate if asked to do so by the test-and-trace system. They know they won’t be paid if they do or, worse, could lose their jobs. This helps explain why there is a low contact with test and trace in poorer areas and why people are reluctant to provide names of contacts to tracers.

We have raised this issue over many weeks and, finally, it has been acknowledged as a serious weakness in our defences by a senior government figure. Dido Harding, the head of NHS Test and Trace, told a Confederation of British Industry event this week that there is now clear evidence that the lowest-paid people find it hard to follow the guidance. Ministers must listen.

We urgently need a simple national policy which allows all workers to isolate on full pay if asked to do so. How that is paid for is a matter for government to sort with employers. As it stands, the lack of such a policy is a major chink in our armour against Covid-19 and leaves our poorest communities dangerously exposed.

Also, how can we be sure it is safe to reopen schools in our poorest communities in September when the test-and-trace system is not working properly?

So it was right to support the government this time. But, if it doesn’t help those “red wall” seats, it will find it much harder to persuade people in the north to support more restrictions down the line.