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Fantasy Football: A.J. Dillon gets his chance, more Week 10 recap

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Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers

Weather and a couple of rusty quarterbacks coming off missed time led to the lowest-scoring game at halftime of the season (3-0). Wilson especially struggled (4.0 YPA) despite reportedly rehabbing his finger injury a mere 19 hours a day, and Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both somehow finished with fewer than 30 receiving yards despite getting their star QB back and GB missing Jaire Alexander. While Wilson was playing at less than 100 percent, the Packers defense also deserves credit; Green Bay has held Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Wilson to a combined 5.5 YPA and a 1:4 TD:INT ratio over the last three weeks. Let’s give Seattle’s passing attack a mulligan considering Sunday’s circumstances and go after Lockett/Metcalf in trades this week (both finished top-five in air yards Sunday) … Pete Carroll appeared to use a flip phone as a challenge flag.

The biggest fantasy news of Week 10 was Aaron Jones leaving with a knee injury. While Jones seems to have avoided a serious injury, it means A.J. Dillon is a top-five (one could argue top-three) fantasy back as long as Jones is out. Dillon has fresh legs and is looking at a ton of three-down work for now with rookie Kylin Hill also out for the season. Dillon’s size/speed combo is matched on planet earth only by Derrick Henry, so he could be in store for a truly monstrous stretch if Jones misses more time than expected (especially with LT David Bakhtiari back soon and GB’s defense playing so well). Dillon was fantasy’s No. 2 RB in PPR this week when he also flashed as a receiver

Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon (28)
It's about to be Quadzilla's time with Aaron Jones expected to be on the shelf. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Trevor Lawrence entered as one of only two quarterbacks in the league getting negative EPA/play under ideal circumstances and proceeded to post a -15.4 CPOE during a game in which Jacksonville easily could’ve upset the Colts. It’s obviously early, but Lawrence hasn’t looked anything like a generational draft pick so far … James Robinson acted as the Jaguars' workhorse while playing through his heel injury, but Jamal Agnew provided the team’s highlight of the gameDan Arnold leads the NFL in WOPR … The Colts jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and Jonathan Taylor looked poised for a huge game yet was barely heard from again somehow. Still, you love to see Taylor getting a team-high eight targets; he should be treating him as fantasy’s No. 1 player right now … Michael Pittman is a future star.

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots

Baker Mayfield entered 4-1 against top-five scoring defenses since last year but had an absolutely miserable game (without Odell Beckham for once). D’Ernest Johnson is a must-start fantasy RB regardless of matchup any week he has Cleveland’s backfield to himself like he did Sunday. He’s really good ... Teams that passed on drafting Mac Jones might be feeling serious regret right now, while Jakobi Meyers ended his record-breaking streak by finally scoring his first career touchdown. The Patriots had three 90+ yard TD drives — the most in the Bill Belichick era … Hunter Henry finished as fantasy’s TE2 this week and has scored seven touchdowns over his last seven games.

Rhamondre Stevenson was fantasy’s RB1 in PPR formats, is a beast and at minimum will make New England’s backfield more of a committee when Damien Harris returns; Stevenson led the preseason in rushing, saw five targets Sunday and would be a true fantasy difference maker if Harris remained out. The rookie is the real deal. He’s available in 70% of Yahoo leagues and would be worth 100% of your free agent budget.

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

With Dallas coming off an ugly loss and Atlanta an upset win, this buy-low, sell-high game went perfectly as planned for those who backed the Cowboys in Survivor pools this week (my $6 Million pool is down to 170 people!). Game-script cost some fantasy points, as both teams pulled way off the gas pedal in the second half (although props to Mike McCarthy going for 2 up 33 points). Still, Dak Prescott was fantasy’s QB1 before SNF and is up to 15 touchdowns over five home games this season, as the Cowboys did plenty of damage before halftime. What a ridiculous pass here.

Matt Ryan entered first in QBR over the last five weeks but struggled mightily (-23.5 CPOE) against a defense missing Randy Gregory. To be fair, Atlanta’s receivers are really weak with no Calvin Ridley (and playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson was rested for long stretches this game). I’m not sprinting to grab Wayne Gallman off waiver wires … CeeDee Lamb already has more touchdowns this season than all last year, but it’s mildly disappointing he’s seen double-digit targets in just one game since getting 15 in Week 1.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

The magic ran out for Mike White, who may want to return to writing/directing after Sunday’s ugly game. It looked even worse once Joe Flacco recorded a perfect Passer Rating after replacing him. Whoever plays quarterback for the Jets, they should throw more to Elijah Moore ... Josh Allen was terrific (13.1 YPA), but his fantasy managers weren’t big fans of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Matt Breida and Isaiah McKenzie all running for touchdowns … Dawson Knox dropped a TD. But Stefon Diggs is back.

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans

Trevor Siemian put up nice cosmetic stats (8.8 YPA, 104.8 Passer Rating) but posted a -5.1 CPOE during a second straight New Orleans loss (thanks in part to two missed extra points Sunday), so Taysom Hill might get his chance soon if the team wants its QB play to evolve. Fantasy managers can dream at least … Mark Ingram should be considered a top-12 fantasy RB as long as Alvin Kamara is sidelined … Here’s another shaky roughing the passer callD’Onta Foreman resembled Derrick Henry in look only, as Tennessee’s three-way rushing timeshare was shutdown (2.3 YPC) by DVOA’s best run defense … Yet another Titans win despite no Henry or Julio Jones and AJ Brown held to just 16 yards, as they didn’t let a five-game win streak or last week’s primetime upset victory lead to any sort of letdown. Mike Vrabel has to be considered a good coach at this point … Brown is always an injury risk, but he had to deal with Marshon Lattimore (and even some doubles) on Sunday, so he should be considered a borderline top-five fantasy WR moving forward with Henry and Jones both on IR.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team

Tom Brady really struggled despite Chris Godwin playing and facing a Washington defense that entered allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Brady now has an 18:2 TD:INT ratio at home compared to 9:5 on the road this season. The Bucs started slowly with just six points at halftime (and one FG was a gift thanks to a facemask penalty on a play that otherwise would’ve ended the half), as teams throughout the league continue to struggle coming out of their byes, now unable to practice during the first week off.

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The game then essentially ended with the NFL’s longest drive of the season (19 plays), as Washington kept Brady on the sideline over the final 10.5 minutes (culminating in a possible devastating injury to Vita Vea) … Washington pulled off the upset despite losing Chase Young, who shockingly remains stuck on just 1.5 sacks during his second year in the league. Speaking of surprising, an unexpectedly favorable game script didn’t help the fantasy stats of Terry McLaurin and Taylor Heinicke (but really benefited Antonio Gibson against an elite run D). 

Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather was a factor (especially for Jared Goff’s tiny hands), but neither quarterback got even 5.0 YPA. Godwin Igwebuike and Jemar Jefferson had TD runs, but D’Andre Swift led the league in carries (more than doubling his previous career-high for a game) and rush yards in Week 10 while also seeing six targets, so he can be a true workhorse with no Jamaal Williams. Swift easily leads the NFL in high-value touches … Ray-Ray McCloud saw 12 targets and finished as a top-10 WR in PPR leagues this week. Goff missed a wide-open Kalif Raymond on a would-be 50+ yard touchdown … Overtime featured multiple lost fumbles, a questionable roughing the passer penalty and a missed field goal, leading to the season’s first (and well-deserved) tie.

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers

While I fully expected overtime in this matchup, it predictably came down to one score, with Kirk Cousins outplaying Justin Herbert. Good things happen when Justin Jefferson is targeted more … Austin Ekeler caught a short score but lost a goal-line TD run to Larry RountreeTyler Conklin is starting to fill the expected Irv Smith role nicely … Mike Williams had a bad drop and continues to disappoint after a white-hot start to the season. I’m convinced it’s an injury … The Vikings are as guilty as any squad in the league to playing to their competition, but they are also dangerous; Minnesota is the only team in the NFL to lead by 7+ points in every game this season.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

Just like the Cowboys last week, the Cardinals were blown out at home as big favorites directly following an upset win with their backup QB. Cam Newton somehow scored touchdowns during both of his first two snaps, as Superman is officially back. He’s reportedly set to start for Carolina moving forward and is interesting in fantasy leagues thanks to his rushing … Christian McCaffrey secured all 10 targets and nearly had as many yards from scrimmage as the Cardinals totaled. Pretty impressive while facing DVOA’s No. 2 ranked defense while on the road and with P.J. Walker as his starting quarterback.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos

The Eagles remained the league’s most run-heavy team, finishing with 40 rushing attempts. Jalen Hurts led the team with 14 carries, and he also found DeVonta Smith for two impressive touchdown strikes ... Teddy Bridgewater played quarterback poorly during Sunday’s loss, but his tackling was even worse

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes entered Sunday night getting just 6.0 YPA over his last five games and facing a Raiders defense allowing the second-fewest YPA in the league while also creating pressure without blitzing, yet he finished Week 10 as easily fantasy’s QB1.

No Cover 2 shell existed to stop Mahomes, who threw for 400+ yards and five touchdowns with zero turnovers or sacks in a dominant performance … Derek Carr led the Raiders in rushing yards (18), which wasn’t ideal up against a KC run defense ranked 29th in DVOA … Darren Waller had a late touchdown grab in garbage time erased thanks to a penalty, while DeSean Jackson lost a fumble during his first catch with Las Vegas.

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