German exports rise amid concerns over second wave of coronavirus infections

Germany’s exports increased for the second month in a row in June, posting a 14.9% rise in the month from the previous month, although exports were still more than 9% lower than in June.

Germany’s federal statistics bureau Destatis said on Friday that exports in June totalled €96.1bn (£86.7bn ,$113.7bn), while imports rose 7% from May to €80.5bn.

Destatis said that Europe’s largest economy reported a seasonal-and-calendar adjusted trade surplus of €14.5bn in June.

The report comes after industrial production data this week showed a surge in new orders. Industrial production, excluding the construction and energy sectors, increased by a little over 11% month on month from May.

“Even if industrial production were to stagnate during the entire third quarter, it would still be up by some 10% compared with the second,” said ING Germany chief economist Carsten Brzeski in a note.

“This shows that the lifting of the lockdown measures almost mechanically will lead to a strong rebound of the economy in the third quarter.”

Brzeski added however, that while this week’s data shows a V-shaped rebound after corona lockdowns were lifted, it is unlikely that “V” will last for long because of “the risks of a second lockdown wave, an increase of permanent unemployment and structural changes to the economy stemming from COVID-19.”

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The monthly survey from Germany’s Ifo economic institute this week showed that the industrial sector was feeling more optimistic, for the third month in a row, and companies are expecting production to keep increasing in the months ahead.

Germany’s export-dependent manufacturing sector experienced a sharp growth in new orders in July, in the wake of coronavirus restrictions lifting.

IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading for the German manufacturing sector rose to 51.0 in July, marking growth, and up from 45.2 in June. The steep rise in new orders was attributed to a release of pent-up demand and a wider recovery in demand, especially from China.