‘Gladiator II’ Opened Big Overseas, Now Looks for $65 Million-Plus U.S. Launch

While “Wicked” looks to earn one of the best opening weekends of the year, Paramount is hoping to entertain the masses in its own way with “Gladiator II,” Ridley Scott’s legacyquel to his 2000 Best Picture winner. It marks the return of a type of film once thought to be extinct: the sword-and-sandal epic.

The original “Gladiator” starred Russell Crowe as a Roman general reduced to life as a gladiator as he seeks to avenge his wife and child who were slain at the hands of a corrupt emperor. It was part of a history of ancient civilization films that peaked in the 50s with films like “The Ten Commandments” and “Ben-Hur” but persisted into the 2000s with films like “Alexander,” “Troy,” and “300” before ceding the cultural spotlight to comic books and sci-fi franchises.

Nearly a quarter-century later, the return of “Gladiator” marks the return of sword-and-sandals for the first time in a generation. Gen X fans of the first film, who are primarily male, are expected to drive turnout on opening weekend with a projected $65 million-plus opening.

“It’s a little funny that we’re getting ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ on the same weekend, because they are both evoking films from a bygone era: the MGM musical and the sword-and-sandals spectacle,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.

“Glicked”? Not so fast

That said, Dergarabedian noted that “Gladiator II” will likely have to find box office legs on its own, because the chances of a high number of moviegoers seeing it with “Wicked” as a double feature a la “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” last year is quite unlikely.

“To expect another ‘Barbenheimer’ because there are two high-profile films releasing on the same weekend is really getting over your skis,” he said. “There might be similarities between ‘Barbie’ and ‘Wicked’ in their appeal as musical, fun films, [but] ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Gladiator II’ are wildly different R-rated films.”

Indeed, “Gladiator II” is not just a much more viscerally violent and angrier film than “Oppenheimer” but also more than the first “Gladiator.” The core audience of “Wicked” that is attracted to that film for its song-and-dance numbers may not have much of an overlap with the audience of an R-rated film that has plenty of gory gladiatorial kills and beheadings in the quest for power.

That said, the one thing “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” have in common is their commitment to big screen spectacle with large practical sets and over-the-top moments, with each one catering to a different audience subset. With intense sword fights involving stars like Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II” will have its own dedicated spot on an end-of-year film slate dominated by family friendly films like “Moana 2,” “Mufasa” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3.”

It is also likely to get continued support from overseas markets after earning $87 million this past weekend from 63 territories, the highest ever overseas opening for Ridley Scott. That will be needed, as “Gladiator II” carries a budget of at least $215 million after tax incentives, along with a reported $100 million marketing budget.

Are you not entertained, Zoomers?

Perhaps the most interesting element of the “Gladiator II” theatrical run will be how it does with moviegoers that were too young — or not even born yet — to see the first “Gladiator” in theaters.

Recently, Paramount has been successful in winning over Gen Z with their legacyquels, whether it is the recent revival of the “Scream” franchise or the landmark success of “Top Gun: Maverick,” which saw a huge launch driven by nostalgic Gen Xers before being sustained in later weeks by younger audiences drawn by the critical acclaim.

With “Wicked,” “Moana 2” and “Mufasa” providing plenty of musical fun, there’s going to be plenty of moviegoers who want something with a bit more intensity. The ideal scenario for “Gladiator II” is that its unique place in the current marketplace allows it to leg out even if its violence limits the reach of its word-of-mouth.

Currently, “Gladiator II” has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 78%, with the general critics consensus being that the film’s story does not hold up to its predecessor, but its thrilling fight scenes do.

Those thrills may be enough to win over a wider swath of moviegoers than just older men, especially considering this is the first sword-and-sandals film in a generation. What was old is new again, and “Gladiator II” may go the distance simply by being the sort of film that has been absent from pop culture for so long that it’s something Gen Z has never seen before.

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