The Guardian view on the assault on Idlib: the stakes are rising
What it takes to puncture indifference, it emerges, is not the suffering of ordinary men, women and children, but the prospect that they might escape it by coming to our shores. The Syrian regime’s relentless assault upon Idlib, the last rebel-held area, is a humanitarian catastrophe. But it is Ankara’s announcement that it will no longer prevent Syrian refugees from travelling to Europe, alongside the growing risk of full-on military confrontation between Turkey and Damascus, potentially drawing in Moscow, which has grabbed international attention.
Turkish officials have threatened to reopen the migrant route across the Mediterranean, reversing an existing deal with the EU. The immediate impact is likely to be limited. It looks like a desperate bid to push the EU and Nato into supporting Turkey’s military operations in Idlib in defence of anti-regime militias, following the deaths of at least 33 of its soldiers on Thursday.
The primary casualties of the regime’s offensive, of course, are the Syrians trapped in the north-western province. To accuse Syria and its patron Russia of killing and maiming children through their indiscriminate and unrelenting assaults is too generous; not all the killing is indiscriminate. At least nine children died when 10 schools and nurseries came under attack on Wednesday, Unicef reported. Hospitals and other medical facilities have repeatedly been struck.
The Syrian government’s assault, aided too by Iran-backed fighters, has killed around 300 civilians since the start of the year and displaced a million people. Damascus says it is driving out terrorists, drawing no distinction between jihadist fighters, peaceful opponents and families caught up in the violence.
With 3.6 million Syrians already living in his country, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, wants to repatriate refugees to Idlib, not open the doors to the 3 million people now crowded there. Nor, having staked his credibility on intervention, does he want to lose face. Yet he is under domestic political pressure as Turkish deaths mount.
The prospects of European or US support – beyond rhetoric – appear low, unless perhaps he is willing to abandon the purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defence system. He has threatened to escalate unless Syrian forces withdraw to lines agreed in a 2018 ceasefire deal. But he appears to have been surprised by Vladimir Putin’s uncompromising stance. Russia is counting on the Turkish president’s need to protect his relationship with Mr Putin. While many believe Russian planes carried out Thursday’s precision strike, Moscow has denied responsibility – and Ankara has blamed Damascus.
The best-case scenario for Idlib may be that Turkey manages to preserve what is now left of the rebel-held area, leaving millions in these desperate conditions. Despite a ferocious counterattack on Syrian targets on Thursday, that looks unlikely while Russia controls the skies. The worst is that Syria and Russia triumph, forcing people into even greater misery.
Some seem to imagine that the crushing of Idlib, however brutal, will at least end the tragedy, bringing the return of refugees, the rehabilitation of the Assad regime and the reconstruction of the country after nine years of war. But Idlib holds the government’s most committed opponents, and jihadist fighters are already planning for an insurgency. An opposition once contained in the province will probably move undercover. And Syria will face a new phase of instability as well as further cruelty, with repercussions that will ultimately be felt beyond its borders.
