Is Hurricane Milton’s severity linked to climate change?

Police block off a bridge leading to the barrier island of St. Pete Beach, Fla., ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton, in South Pasadena, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
Police block off a bridge leading to a barrier island ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Hurricane Milton has made landfall on the Florida’s Gulf Coast, forcing millions of people to flee their homes and leaving residents to fear a trail of destruction when they return.

Milton's rapid power surge - it grew from a category one to category five hurricane in less than 24 hours before being downgraded as it hit land - appears to be the latest example of a worrying trend, scientists have said, with climate change not only fuelling more powerful storms, but doing so more quickly.

Two separate scientific alerts published this week linked the storm’s rapid growth to warming temperatures. And, in the wake of Hurricane Helene, which pounded Florida just days before the arrival of Hurricane Milton, President Joe Biden criticised those who sought to deny a link with climate change.

"No one can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore," he said. "At least I hope they don’t, they must be brain dead if they do. Scientists report that with warming oceans powering more intense rains, storms… are getting stronger and stronger. They’re not going to get less, they’re going to get stronger."

Tropical cyclones (which include hurricanes) rely on warm water to develop, says Dr Matthew Blackett, Associate Professor, Physical Geography and Natural Hazards at Coventry University.

Ocean temperatures above 27C are crucial to developing hurricanes.

This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken at 12:15 p.m. EDT and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast off Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (NOAA via AP)
Hurricane Milton seen from a satellite over the Gulf of Mexico (NOAA via AP)

Dr Blackett says: "What is the connection with climate change? A study published in Nature demonstrated that sea surface temperatures during the extreme 2020 storm season were approximately 0.6C higher, as a result of human activity, and that this provided the energy necessary for the formation of so many storms."

The relationships between climate change and hurricanes is complex, though, and the number of storms may actually remain stable or even decrease. But what climate change will drive is an increase in the number of severe hurricanes, Dr Blackett told Yahoo News.

He said: "The proportion of these that are severe (categories three to five), will be expected to rise, with an effect that has been termed ‘supercharging’. Changes such as rapid intensification and shifts in storm behaviour are already being observed and may signal the influence of climate change.

"The evidence suggests a worrying trend. Rising sea surface temperatures are linked to increasing storm intensity, indicating that human-induced climate change is likely worsening hurricane patterns. As we face more severe storms and escalating economic impacts, understanding these complex relationships is becoming ever-more critical.’

In this image taken with a drone, traffic flows eastbound along Interstate 4 as residents continue to follow evacuation orders ahead of Hurricane Milton, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Traffic flows eastbound along Interstate 4 as residents continue to follow evacuation orders ahead of Hurricane Milton (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Research by Climate Central this week suggested that the warm sea surface which led to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Milton was caused by climate change.

In 24 hours, Hurricane Milton’s maximum sustained winds increased 92mph.

Sea surface temperatures in the area were at - or above - record-breaking highs in the area, Climate Central reported - and those temperatures were made 400-800 times more likely by climate change.

The analysis is based on satellite data around sea surface temperatures based on the OSTIA, the Copernicus based high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) data product.

A study this month by researchers at World Weather Attribution found that climate change made Hurricane Helene more likely, more powerful and rainier.

The researchers say that the same forces worked to make Hurricane Milton stronger.

World Weather Attribution are scientists who conduct studies quickly in the wake of extreme weather events to assess how much climate change contributed.

Their study found that rainfall in Helene was 10% heavier due to climate change, and that the high sea surface temperatures which led to Helene were 200 to 500 times more likely due to climate change

Study author Ben Clarke of Imperial College, London, said:: “We found that essentially all aspects of this event are amplified by climate change to different degrees. We'll see more of the same as the world continues to warm.”