When will Singapore know who has won the US election?
Millions of Americans have voted in the 2024 presidential election that promises to be one of the closest and most unpredictable in recent US history.
Results will trickle in over the coming days, but don’t expect a clear winner on election night.
The tight race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump means that the final outcome could take longer to declare, with key battleground states expected to experience delays.
When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?
Polling stations across the US began closing at 7:00am Singapore Standard Time (SGT) on Wednesday (6 Nov), with the last polls closing at 4:00pm SGT.
As in previous years, there will be a steady stream of results coming in state-by-state, but given the tight nature of the race, it could take much longer to project a winner.
While in past elections, some states have quickly declared a winer, this year’s extremely narrow margins in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona could delay the announcement.
Media outlets and experts will likely take longer than usual to make projections, with a final winner not expected until late in the week.
When have previous presidential election results been announced?
In the 2020 presidential election, it wasn’t until four days after Election Day that the winner was confirmed, when Pennsylvania’s results became clear.
A similar scenario played out in 2016, with Donald Trump declared the winner by 4:00pm SGT, a few hours after polls closed.
However, some elections have been quicker. In 2012, Barack Obama’s re-election victory was confirmed before midnight on election night.
The 2000 election, between George W Bush and Al Gore, stands out as the most prolonged contest, with results not confirmed for five weeks due to a Supreme Court decision ending the Florida recount.
What are the swing states to watch and when might they declare?
The outcome of the election hinges on results from key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona. Voter turnout has been high, especially with early voting, which is already setting records in states like Georgia. Here's what to expect in the coming hours:
Georgia: Polls closed at 8:00am SGT. Georgia’s election officials predict that 75 per cent of the vote will be counted within the first two hours.
North Carolina: Polls closed at 8:30am SGT. Results are expected by the end of election night.
Pennsylvania: Polls closed at 9:00am SGT, but experts warn that it could take at least 24 hours before enough votes are counted to declare a winner.
Michigan: Voting concludes at 10:00am SGT, with results likely to be delayed until the end of Wednesday.
Wisconsin: Results are expected shortly after 10:00am SGT, but may not be fully available until at least Wednesday.
Arizona: Initial results could come in as early as 11:00am SGT, but the state’s largest county warns that results may not be fully counted until the early hours of Wednesday.
Nevada: The state allows mail-in ballots until 9 November, so it could take several days to tally votes here as well.
Why should we be cautious of early voting data?
In such a tight race, early voting results may not be the best indicator of who will eventually win.
In 2020, Trump had a significant lead in several battleground states on Election Night, only for Joe Biden to overtake him as mail ballots were counted.
This year, experts predict a similar phenomenon, either with a “red mirage” (favouring Trump) or a “blue mirage” (favouring Harris), as mail-in and early votes are counted later.
In 2024, over 83 million Americans have already voted, with women making up 54 per cent of early voters – a group that traditionally leans toward Harris.
However, Republicans are also closing the gap, with many casting early ballots. These shifts in voting patterns could distort the picture in the early hours of counting.
How does the vote-counting work?
Typically, votes cast on Election Day are counted first, followed by mail ballots, early votes, and military or overseas ballots.
The counting process is complex, involving verification of ballots, examination for damage, and ensuring that all ballots match voter records.
After ballots are processed, they are fed into scanners for tallying, although manual recounts may occur in closely contested states.
Election officials in each state are responsible for overseeing this process, ensuring transparency, and allowing partisan observers to monitor the tallying.
The order in which ballots are counted varies by state, as does the degree of public access to the process.
What happens if the presidential election results are challenged?
Once all ballots are counted and a winner is declared, the Electoral College process takes over.
States award electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state.
These votes are certified in December, after which the new Congress meets in early January to count and certify the results.
After the 2020 election, then-President Trump and his supporters mounted a series of unsuccessful challenges to the result.
Although these efforts failed, it’s possible that 2024 could see similar challenges, particularly at the state or local level. In the event of a contested result, the process could be drawn out for weeks, especially in close states.
What happens if there is a tie?
In the unlikely event that both candidates finish with 269 electoral votes each, the decision would fall to the House of Representatives, which would vote to select the president.
The Senate would choose the vice president.
This scenario hasn’t occurred in over 200 years, but the possibility remains.
When is the presidential inauguration?
The newly elected president will be inaugurated on Monday, (20 Jan).
This historic event will mark the 60th presidential inauguration in US history, where the president-elect will take the oath of office on the steps of the Capitol and deliver their inaugural address.
More coverage of the 2024 US election here.
