Since she announced that a snap General Election would be taking place on 8 June, Theresa May’s party has been riding high in the polls.
Now, bolstered by strong numbers and a solid performance in local elections, The Conservatives are going after votes in traditional Labour heartlands in the Midlands and the North of England. And the polls predict they could snatch a number of ‘safe’ seats from Labour’s clutches.
Despite widespread support for Labour’s manifesto policies, Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings are tanking, leaving the Opposition exposed to a landslide defeat.
Pollsters YouGov has taken a look at voting intentions in each area of the UK – and the results should have Labour worried. Conservative vote share is up in every region since the 2015 general election, while Labour’s share has dipped in every region bar two.
These numbers suggest the Tories could overturn a number of Labour majorities. This is where they could do it.
Labour is still ahead in the North East. Just. But their 22-point lead in the 2015 election has tightened to just two points, marking the biggest Conservative gain in any single region. The percentage of people intending to vote blue has leapt from 25 to 40, while Labour’s predicted vote share has dropped by 5%.
Once a safe spot for Labour, the two main parties are now neck and neck in the North West, with the Tories closing up 2015’s 13-point gap. This is the region where Labour has the most seats – 51 – so a loss here could be devastating.
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
Labour’s five-point lead in 2015 has turned into a seven-point lead for the Conservative Party in 2017. The high number of marginal seats in the area makes this a key battleground, and both main parties have seats with small majorities up for the taking.
A shock Tory surge in Wales has seen support reach unprecedented levels, with support increasing by a 14-point margin, making the Conservative the most popular party in Wales. If the party follows through on 8 June and wins the largest share of the vote, it will be the first time they have done so since 1922.
The vote in Scotland is still dominated by the SNP, who are predicted to receive 41% of all votes. However the Conservatives have improved their standing considerably in a previously hostile region, jumping from 15% to 28%. Labour on the other hand has dropped from 24% to a measly 18% – its lowest in any UK area.
The news doesn’t look much rosier for Labour in the rest of the country. The Conservatives have extended their lead in the East Midlands by by 14 points, giving the region the third-highest for share for the party.
In the West Midlands another swing to the right has increased the Conservative lead from nine points to 23.
The East of England and the South East are tied as the most strongly Conservative areas, with Theresa May’s party currently polling a 56% share of the vote.
London alone remains a glimmer of hope for Mr Corbyn. Labour has clung onto a five-point lead in the capital, which elected Labour mayor Sadiq Khan in 2016.