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NASCAR at Michigan betting preview: Kevin Harvick goes for four in a row

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It’s time for the only trip to Michigan in 2021.

The 2021 season marks just the second time the Cup Series has ever run just one race at Michigan International Speedway in a season since the track hosted its first Cup race in 1969. Two Cup races have been scheduled at the track every season with the exception of 1973.

Michigan has long been a big market for NASCAR since it’s near Detroit and the home bases for Ford and General Motors. That won’t change with just one race at Michigan in 2021. Especially for Ford.

Ford drivers have won every race at Michigan since Kyle Larson won three straight in 2016 and 2017. Ford is on a six-race win streak at the track while Kevin Harvick has won the last three races there.

There are no Ford drivers among the top four favorites on Sunday. Chevy teammates Larson and Chase Elliott are the top two favorites followed by Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. Harvick is the No. 5 favorite at +800 while Logano is at +1400 a little further down the board.

Here’s a look at what you need to know to bet on Sunday’s race. Larson will start first because of NASCAR’s qualifying formula. Odds are, as always, courtesy of BetMGM. Sunday's FireKeepers 400 starts at 3 p.m. ET and is on NBCSN.

The favorites

Kyle Larson +300

Chase Elliott +700

Kyle Busch +700

Martin Truex Jr. +700

Kevin Harvick +800

Larson has six top 10s in 12 starts at Michigan and didn’t race at the track in 2020 after his departure from Chip Ganassi Racing. He’s had the fastest car at intermediate tracks so it’ll be surprising if he doesn’t spend considerable time up front. Elliott has never won at Michigan but has nine top 10s in just ten starts. Busch has one win in 32 Michigan starts and has finished in the top 10 just 14 times. That’s not a great rate for him. Truex has 10 top fives in 30 Michigan Starts while Harvick leads all active drivers with five Michigan wins and 21 top 10s.

Good mid-tier value

William Byron +1400

Alex Bowman +1800

You have to go with the other two Hendrick drivers in this category. They’ll have fast cars on Sunday, though neither has a great Michigan track record. Bowman and Byron have three top 10s in 17 combined starts at the track. Bowman’s best finish is 10th.

Don't bet this driver

Matt DiBenedetto +6600

DiBenedetto has just one top 10 in 12 races at Michigan and has never won a Cup Series race before. It’d be a stunner if he won one in 2021.

Looking for a long shot?

Austin Dillon +5000

Dillon isn’t really a long shot per se but has shown some speed at Michigan in his career. And Richard Childress Racing is always capable of heading to an intermediate track (see: Texas 2020) and hitting the setup right to run with bigger teams.

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