NFL betting: Week 4 favorites to avoid on a teaser

·Betting analyst
·4-min read

All lines from BetMGM.

Another week, another opportunity to cash an NFL six-point teaser. There are so many games that fall into a teaser-leg option, which could make things tricky. Here’s what I’ve got this week hoping to ride the current 3-0 streak.

As a reminder, here is the basic teaser strategy. (And how teasers work.)

  • Tease home favorites of 7.5, 8, 8.5, or 9 points down.

  • Tease home underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 points up.

  • Tease road underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2, or 2.5 points up.

  • When possible, emphasize games with lower game totals rather than projected shootouts.

Week 4 road favorites to avoid

If you noticed the parameters mentioned above, they don't include road favorites. Ask 100 bettors which two teams they will be teasing this week and 100 people will tell you that they have a ticket with some combination of Titans, Bucs, and Chiefs.

Titans -1.5 at Jets

Chiefs -1.5 at Eagles

Buccaneers -.5 at Patriots

Tampa is not a good teaser option, whether the spread is 6.5 or 7. Could it work out? Sure. Should it work out? Perhaps. However, you are looking to tease through the key numbers of seven and three. The value lies in taking the spread straight rather than paying the juice to tease.

A Titans/Chiefs teaser looks too easy, doesn’t it? I’m not certain I trust Kansas City, which is now 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games, including three outright losses in their last four. Then trust the Titans defense? Sure, the Jets are awful (an understatement), but the Titans can’t stop a nosebleed.

Week 4 teaser options

Excluding the above games, the options for this week include:

Lower-totaled games

Jaguars at Bengals -1.5

Giants at Saints -1.5

Washington at Falcons +7.5

Lions +8.5 at Bears

Colts +8.5 at Dolphins

Ravens at Broncos +7

Games with high point totals

Browns at Vikings +7.5

Seahawks +8.5 at 49ers

My NFL Week 4 teaser: Saints -1.5 (Total 41)/Vikings +7.5 (Total 51)

You can’t do much against this Saints defense. New Orleans held Aaron Rodgers and company to 229 total yards and the Patriots to 4.3 yards yards per play. If you can’t run, then you’ll be forced to pass. This defense has six interceptions, including two from Rodgers, which have pushed the Saints into a tie with the Dallas Cowboys for the league lead in forced turnovers. Is it scary to back a team with a quarterback who has yet to throw more than 150 yards? Absolutely. You back the Saints, though, because their defense is facing Daniel Jones, who has yet to throw an interception. One of these things is more likely to continue than the other, similar to how the Eagles had yet to have a turnover entering their matchup to the Dallas Cowboys. Jalen Hurts ended up throwing two interceptions. The same thing could happen here.

Following the above parameters, the Vikings would be an option to consider leaving off because of the higher total. However, like last week, there are a few reasons why Minnesota is too good to pass up. First, the two quarterbacks Cleveland has faced include Bears rookie Justin Fields in a Matt Nagy offense and Texans rookie Davis Mills, who subbed for Tyrod Taylor in the second half of Week 2. The Browns allowed Taylor to throw for a 90 percent completion percentage and Patrick Mahomes to throw for 8.5 yards per pass attempt in Week 1.

This is a susceptible secondary that now faces Kirk Cousins, who has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight games and 11 of his past 12.

Secondly, Minnesota is bringing the heat against quarterbacks. The Vikings are fourth best in QB sacks and get to feast on Baker Mayfield, who was sacked five times in 43 touches in last week’s matchup against the Bears. Too bad Chicago didn’t have an offense to capitalize, but the Vikings do.

Lastly, since moving to U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016, the Vikings are 24-17-1 ATS at home and 6-1 ATS as a home underdog. Excluding not having fans in the stands last year, Minnesota is 22-11-1 ATS at home since 2016.

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