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Every season there is always an unexpected team that I build a bond with through sports betting. It's not a team that I particularly liked or thought would be a playoff team. Sometimes you just have a good read and the bets are hitting. Last year, it was the Carolina Panthers. I went 5-1 ATS when betting on Carolina as Teddy Bridgewater continued to cash. It was good while it lasted, but the betting market always catches up.
We all have gone to the well too many times. Winning streaks are one of the most exciting aspects of sports and it's only natural to ride the hot hand. Last season, nine teams entered Week 3 with a perfect 2-0 record ATS. Only two of those teams, Seattle and Green Bay, covered in Week 3.
Riding the hot hand is fun, but you have to be willing to let go when the market adjusts. Let's see if we can avoid getting burned by the five teams that have been perfect for bettors throughout the first two weeks. Thursday night gets us started by showcasing two teams that are both 2-0 ATS.
Carolina (-8) at Houston
It's very difficult to back Carolina as such a huge favorite with an offense that is 22nd in success rate but Houston is in a terrible spot with Davis Mills. Matt Rhule's defense will feast on the Texans' offense. I think this number is more about downgrading Houston than confidence in Carolina. I hope Houston backers saved those winnings from the first two weeks because a Carolina cover is likely.
NY Jets (+10.5) at Denver
Bridgewater is 33-11 ATS as a starter and has been a perfect 2-0 with the Broncos. He built up my bankroll last season but I have to get off the bus before I bet him as a double-digit favorite. The Broncos were 2.5-point favorites against the Giants only two weeks ago so it's hard to justify such an increase. This is the lowest total on the board at 41.5, so a conservative gameplan from both teams is expected. Don't bank on the Broncos continuing to cash this week.
Miami at Las Vegas (-4)
Only five teams are ranked lower in net yards per play than the Dolphins. Now they turn to Jacoby Brissett with a struggling offensive line. Derek Carr has thrown for over 800 passing yards in his first two games and the Raiders rank 10th in EPA/Play. Las Vegas will score on the Dolphins defense and I don't have the confidence that Miami has the firepower to exploit the Raiders secondary. Sin City will take care of its backers on Sunday as the Raiders move to 3-0 ATS.
Philadelphia (+4) at Dallas
The Cowboys are 2-0 ATS as underdogs and now come home for a prime-time matchup against an NFC East rival. Dak Prescott has been able to make plays when required, but is Dan Quinn going to be able to hold up his end of the bargain? The Dallas defense has been able to create timely turnovers to keep opponents off the scoreboard, but Philly has been perfect at protecting the ball for two weeks. The Eagles can exploit Dallas' rushing defense, which ranks 27th in success rate allowed. Keeping Prescott off the field with an efficient running game will allow Philly to keep this one close. Both Cowboys games have been decided by less a field goal, so I will bet the Eagles +4 is going to be the winning side.