Not long ago, Josh Allen was the heavy favorite to win NFL MVP. The Buffalo Bills quarterback had minus odds to win.
Allen isn't even in the top three of the MVP race after Sunday. The Bills lost their second straight game, and Allen threw a game-ending interception in overtime. That pushed him down the MVP odds, and Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa replaced him in the top three.
If anything, Allen's dip (and Tagovailoa's rapid rise) show that the NFL MVP market changes fast. Allen could get back in the race. For those who bet on the Bills QB to win his first MVP — Allen has the second-most MVP bets behind Russell Wilson — there's still hope. But he needs to turn around fast.
Current NFL MVP odds
Here are the updated MVP odds from BetMGM:
Patrick Mahomes +130
Jalen Hurts +375
Tua Tagovailoa +400
Josh Allen +550
Lamar Jackson +1200
Practically speaking it's a five-man race. Everyone else is 25-to-1 or longer.
Mahomes is the clear favorite and rightfully so. He has been the best player in the league to this point in the season and the Kansas City Chiefs are now in good position to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC after the Bills' two-game losing streak. Jalen Hurts isn't out of it, though the 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles need to keep winning big to keep him in the race.
Tagovailoa is interesting. He's putting up numbers. The Dolphins are 7-0 in games he starts and finishes. His MVP odds were 80-to-1 before kickoff of Week 9, and have changed in a stunning way since then. Jackson also can't be ruled out, especially with the Baltimore Ravens getting hot.
But the most significant news is Allen slipping, after he was way out in front of everyone just a couple weeks ago.
Can Josh Allen get back in the race?
The compelling figure in the race is still Allen. While the Wilson MVP tickets are totally dead, the 15.1 percent of MVP tickets on Allen at BetMGM still have a glimmer of hope. But it's getting harder to make a case for Allen winning it.
Allen leads the NFL in interceptions, with 10. He's also averaging 303.7 yards per game, 52.9 rushing yards per game and has 20 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns. If Allen played nearly mistake-free football for the rest of the season while keeping up his production and the Bills got hot and beat out the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed, he'd have a chance. But it needs to start right away and he still probably needs Mahomes to slip a bit. If Mahomes continues at this level all season, he'll win the award.
For a while it looked like there wouldn't be much suspense in the MVP race because Allen would run away with it. Then the Bills suffered a couple upset losses. The MVP race is again in danger of being over soon, but with Allen on the outside of it.