NFL player prop of the day: If Seahawks speed up, Tyler Lockett will take off
Stop if you've heard this before: The Seattle Seahawks are going to change up their offense.
This time, it's all about tempo. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, over from the Los Angeles Rams, has promised to speed up the pace. You won't read many Seahawks stories from training camp without hearing about the new tempo of the offense.
Even if that's remotely true — and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll changed the offense at midseason last year, so nothing is permanent — then Russell Wilson will be the biggest beneficiary.
But don't forget his receivers, particularly Tyler Lockett.
Tyler Lockett could have a huge season
You would probably feel good betting the over on any members of the Seahawks' passing game, but Lockett seems particularly appealing. Lockett's receiving yards total at BetMGM is 1,000.5.
Even if the Seahawks offense is the same as always, Lockett has a good chance to beat that total. If the Seahawks really are speeding up the pace, Lockett should blow by that total with even moderate health.
Since Lockett became a full-time starter three seasons ago, he had 965, 1,065 and 1,054 yards. Those were obviously all 16-game seasons. In a 17-game season, Lockett would have gone over 1,000 in that 965-yard season too.
Lockett has always had a good connection with Wilson, and the Seahawks still have a narrow usage tree. DK Metcalf will be the No. 1 receiver, and that shows in his BetMGM total of 1,275.5. But other than Metcalf, Lockett doesn't have much competition for targets. Rookie D’Wayne Eskridge was slated to be the third receiver, but he has been injured in camp and Freddie Swain — a 2020 sixth-round pick with 13 career receptions — could take over that duty. The tight end, Gerald Everett, could have a nice season but he won't get a ton of targets. The Seahawks have never targeted their running backs heavily.
Even if Wilson is in the 500 range for attempts again (he was 558 last season, but a lot of that came in the first half of the season), Lockett will get at least 100 of those targets. He could get many more as Wilson's attempts rise. Metcalf and Lockett could both top 140 targets if everything falls right.
Injury is always a risk with an over, but Lockett has missed only one game in six seasons. He's a dynamic playmaker with a great quarterback, without much competition for targets in an offense that is supposedly going to run many more plays this season. And he has an extra game this season.
Lockett has beat 1,000 yards each of the past two seasons, and it would be an upset if he didn't do it again.
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