Leave a trough of candy outside your door for the neighborhood trick-or-treaters and glue yourself to the couch tonight for what should be a fun-sized matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. Since becoming head coach of the Browns in 2020, Kevin Stefanski has never lost to his in-state AFC North rivals, yet his team is a three-point home dog on "Monday Night Football." Here are three props on BetMGM that I'll be placing into my plastic pumpkin bucket this evening:
Nick Chubb over 82.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Browns rank first in rushing EPA per play, thanks to a top-tier offensive line and, arguably, the best pure runner in the league. Stefanski knows where his offense's bread is buttered and tonight he'll be carb loading like he's at the Olive Garden. Cincinnati is surrendering 163.3 rushing yards per game over their last three outings, while Chubb has cashed this prop in six of seven games this year and leads the NFL in runs of 20-plus yards (8). Chubb has rushed for at least 84 yards five times out of the seven he's faced the Bengals.
Joe Burrow over 34.5 passing attempts (+100)
Cincinnati's offense this season is flowing through Burrow for two reasons: he's the best player on their team and the Bengals' running game is less effective than gas station pills. Even without Ja'Marr Chase, Burrow has plenty of weapons around him to move the ball against a Browns defense allowing the second-most points per drive. The Bengals offense ranks fifth in first downs per game (22.4). Burrow has eclipsed this number in six of seven games this year. He's also cashed this prop all three times he's faced the Browns, averaging 49.3 passing attempts per contest.
Cincinnati Bengals to call the first timeout (-115)
The only reason the two sides of this bet are evenly juiced is because sportsbooks haven't done the research on which coaches and teams are likelier to call the game's first timeout. I have, and the Bengals should be a big favorite for this prop. In his 40 regular season games coaching the Browns, Stefanski has called the first timeout 12 times (30%), and two of those were failed challenges. At home, his percentage is even lower, calling the game's first timeout just 19% of the time. Zac Taylor has called the game's first timeout at a clip of 53.6% in his NFL coaching career and 51.9% on the road.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).