Fading the Jacksonville Jaguars has been a profitable venture this year — with or without Urban Meyer.
The Jaguars entered Week 17 with a 4-11 record against the spread this season, including six consecutive ATS losses ahead of Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots. One customer at BetMGM was very confident that that trend would continue.
The bettor wagered $220,000 on the Patriots covering as 16.5-point home favorites. The Pats, on the heels of losses to the Colts and Bills, covered and then some. They absolutely destroyed Jacksonville 50-10 in one of the most lopsided games of the season.
New England jumped out to a 28-3 halftime lead and never looked back. The Jaguars didn’t even reach the end zone until the final four minutes when the score was 50-3.
That six-figure bet was never in doubt, and the bettor won $200,000.
With that result, the Jaguars remained the worst ATS team in the league. Their record is now 4-12 against the number, just ahead of the Carolina Panthers at 5-11 ATS.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are among the most reliable for bettors. They are tied with four others — the Colts, Cardinals, Titans and Lions — with a 10-6 ATS record. That’s tied for the second best ATS mark in the NFL.
Home teams dominate ATS in Week 17
The Patriots were among a slew of home teams that came through for bettors on Sunday.
In fact, it was the best week of the season for home teams as they went a sizzling 12-2-1 against the spread. That includes a 10-5 record straight up.
The Patriots were one of the biggest winners of the day for the public, according to Jeff Stoneback, the director of trading for BetMGM. Stoneback told Yahoo Sports that the Patriots, Bears, 49ers and Chargers — all home favorites — contributed to the public ending up as a “small winner” for the day over the house.
The Bears were a favorite for just the fourth time all year and they came through with an easy 29-3 over the Giants, who haven’t covered the spread since Week 12. The Chargers crushed the Broncos 34-13 as 8-point favorites and the 49ers beat the Texans 23-7 as 13.5-point favorites.
There were also plenty of home underdogs that covered the spread. The Bengals beat the Chiefs outright 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. The Jets blew a big lead and lost 28-24 to the Buccaneers, but still managed to cover the 14-point spread with ease.
The Ravens, 7-point underdogs against the Rams, also blew a lead in a 20-19 loss but managed to cover. There was also the Washington Football Team covering as 6-point underdogs against the Eagles. Washington had a 16-7 halftime lead but was shutout in the second half and lost 20-16.
According to Stoneback, Washington, Cincinnati and Baltimore were three of the biggest wins of the day for the book.
Packers now tied with Cowboys for best ATS record
Another big outcome for the books came when the Arizona Cardinals upset the Dallas Cowboys 25-22 at AT&T Stadium.
The Cardinals, who closed as 6.5-point underdogs at BetMGM, were one of just two road teams to cover the spread on Sunday. The other was the Las Vegas Raiders going into Lucas Oil Stadium and upsetting the Indianapolis Colts 23-20 on a last-second field goal. The Raiders closed as 8.5-point underdogs but got the win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Let’s go back to the Cowboys for a second. Dallas entered Sunday’s game on a four-game winning streak — both straight-up and against the spread. They had an NFL-best 12-3 record against the number but are now tied with the Green Bay Packers at 12-4 ATS after Sunday’s loss.
The Packers improved their ATS mark by trouncing the Minnesota Vikings 37-10 as 12.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football.
Incredible total drama in Colts-Raiders game
The Colts vs. Raiders game had a pretty bad beat if you were on the over.
The total closed at 46.5 at BetMGM and the Colts tied the score at 20-20 with a field goal with 1:56 remaining in the fourth quarter. At that point, the ideal outcome for under bettors was a game-winning field goal. Over bettors were looking for a touchdown, whether that came in regulation or in overtime.
It looked like that touchdown came. On a third-and-10 play from the 48 with just under a minute to play, Derek Carr evaded pressure and found Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow caught the pass just inside the 30 and fell to the turf. He then returned to his feet and sprinted to the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown.
It looked like the Raiders had taken a 26-20 lead and only an extra point was needed to put the game over the total. However, the play was reviewed and it was determined that the Colts defender made contact — barely — with one of Renfrow’s cleats as he went down.
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) January 2, 2022
As a result, the touchdown was overturned and the ball was returned to the Colts 24-yard line. From there, the Raiders were able to gain a few more yards, drain the clock and kick the game-winning 33-yard field goal as time expired.
Final score: Raiders 23, Colts 20. That’s 43 points and under the total of 46.5, meaning the outcome of thousands of bets was determined by a finger barely making contact with Renfrow.