No GTA 6 trailer, but the Take Two earnings report all but confirms the GTA 6 release window
From massive in-development leaks to official confirmation of its existence, en masse internet speculation, and some idiot consulting a blooming psychic for a totally unscientific opinion, GTA 6 has been a long time coming. Its immediate predecessor, GTA 5, is now approaching its 10th birthday, having spanned three console generations since launch in September 2013. Much of the fifth main series Grand Theft Auto's enduring success today is owed to its complementary multiplayer off-shoot, GTA Online, which, as a package, has shifted somewhere in the region of 180 million units. That's according to publisher Take-Two, who has now given us our biggest tip regarding the GTA 6 release date yet.
"In Fiscal 2025, we expect to enter this new era by launching several groundbreaking titles that we believe will set new standards in our industry and enable us to achieve over $8 billion in Net Bookings and over $1 billion in Adjusted Unrestricted Operating Cash Flow," says Rockstar's parent company in its latest earnings report. "We expect to sustain this momentum by delivering additional growth in our operating results in Fiscal 2026 and beyond."
That's all a little finance-speak, but the most important parts of this specific statement are mention of "several groundbreaking titles", and, of course, $8 billion in net bookings. From what I understand, the fiscal year 2025 generally kicks off in April 2024 for UK firms, and October 2024 for US outfits, although there appears to be wiggle room on either side of the pond. Either way, it now seems we could see GTA 6 as early as next year.
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Which, to be fair, was pretty much what my totally reliable psychic told me last month. Perhaps more relevant, though, is the fact that rumors of a 2024 GTA 6 release date have been circulating for some time. As noted in our GTA 6 guide, a Bloomberg report back in 2022 said "current and former Rockstar staff reckon GTA 6 is still at least two years away from release, suggesting a 2024 launch." This then appeared to be backed up by Microsoft who, in one its replies to the UK Competition and Markets Authority's investigation into its ongoing acquisition of Activision Blizzard, said: "The highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to be released in 2024."
Speaking to the latest earning's report, Take-Two's $8 billion in annual net bookings is a pretty big jump from the company's reported $5.35 billion in fiscal year 2023, and its rough prediction of $5.42 for fiscal year 2024. I couldn't be further from a financial analyst – seriously, any talk of money at this level sounds like Monopoly to me – but that jump of ~$3 billion makes more sense in the context of Take-Two and Rockstar's previous earnings reports. Sure, mention of "several" new games here sounds interesting at face-value, but it's worth noting Take-Two also owns the likes of 2K, and the recently-acquired Farmville dev Zynga. "Several" new games could apply to any of those, and the $3 billion jump could reflect further buyouts akin to the latter takeover.
To me, what's more interesting is how Take-Two's earnings projections changed in the wake of Red Dead Redemption 2's delay a few years back. Originally scheduled to launch in the second half of 2017, RDR2 was pushed to October 2018 – a move that saw the company's share and stock prices drop, and also, more importantly, its projected earnings fall. According to Reuters, Take-Two's forecasted revenue for the financial year ending March 31, 2018 was initially $2.23 billion, but, post-delay, changed to $1.42 billion.
Again, not to get bogged down in the money side of it all, but that example, at this moment in time at least, double-underscores the idea that GTA 6 could be with us next year, or some point in 2025 at the latest. GTA 5 is still clearly raking it in for Take-Two and Rockstar – it was only 2018 when it passed 100 million unit sales; it's now edged its nose over 180 – but it really feels like the stage is now set for its successor proper, even if we're yet to get a trailer or proper reveal. October 2024, was what my psychic said. And, the way things are unfolding, she just might be right!
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