No solid evidence exists on number of Scots following rules to self-isolate, Sturgeon admits

There is no “solid” evidence to show the number of people following orders to self-isolate in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon has admitted.

The Daily Telegraph revealed on Monday that a figure cited by the Scottish Government in a long-awaited evidence paper, which claimed to show how many Scots with symptoms were following the rules, was based on a sample of just 121 people, with surveys carried out as long ago as early March.

Despite repeatedly emphasising the importance of people following guidelines around quarantine, Ms Sturgeon said yesterday that the figure, described as "ropey and out of date" by opposition MSPs, was the best available evidence for how many were sticking to the rules.

“We cited the research because it is the only real research project where there is a firm figure from,” the First Minister said.

“I’ve said before that it can’t be taken as the be all and end all of this, we don’t yet have solid reliable data for compliance with self-isolation, that is work in progress.”

The research project cited by the Scottish Government was carried out by academics at King’s College London, although the work has not yet been peer reviewed.

While overall 30,000 surveys were carried out across the UK, the figures for the number of Scots with Covid symptoms following rules to self-isolate was based on a tiny sub-sample of the data.

According to the sample, just 23.1 per cent of those who developed symptoms in Scotland over the previous week had self-isolated, apparently contradicting Ms Sturgeon’s repeated claims that the public is overwhelmingly following the rules

James Rubin, the lead author of the paper and a member of the Health Protection Research Unit at King’s College London, admitted to limitations to the research relied upon by the Scottish Government.

“The outcome measure is a metric of self-reported full isolation – for example, we don’t know if people who were not isolating were going to work all the time or if they just left the house once at 3am to take the dog round the block,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Government yesterday denied that police were accessing test and trace data to check on people self-isolating. There was no legal basis for doing so as, unlike in England, failing to self-isolate in Scotland is not against the law, a spokesman said.

He added: “The Scottish Government’s approach to self-isolation is to encourage and support people to comply, which includes sharing information with local authorities in order to enable them to contact individuals to ensure they have the financial, physical and mental health support that they need to comply.”