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Pace holds key for England against South Africa in Wanderers shootout

<span>Photograph: Stu Forster/Getty Images</span>
Photograph: Stu Forster/Getty Images

A sense of eager anticipation is justified when a Test match is at the Wanderers. Stuff happens: a bouncy pitch excites fast bowlers as it did Allan Donald (in 1999), and Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel (2010). Some batsmen revel in the extra pace such as Marcus Trescothick and Herschelle Gibbs (2005); as the humidity increases and thunderstorms threaten, the ball can swing as it did for Matthew Hoggard (2005); wickets can fall in quick succession as for Stuart Broad (2016) and yet it is stillpossible for there to be a heroic rearguard action on a monumental scale (Michael Atherton, 1995).

Since South Africa’s re-entry the tally stands at two wins per side at the Wanderers plus the Atherton/Jack Russell inspired draw. For there to be another draw in the fourth Test quite a lot of rain will have to fall, which is a possibility. More likely there will be a shootout with the pace bowlers to the fore on a well-grassed pitch that seldom disappoints.

Related: Joe Root says series win in South Africa would be his biggest achievement

Neither captain was able to finalise their XI on the eve of the match. They will wait to look at the pitch, the weather forecast and, in the case of England, the fitness of their pacemen.

Faf du Plessis did confirm one change: Temba Bavuma replaces Zubayr Hamza, which means Rassie van der Dussen, an adhesive presence in this series despite his white-ball prowess, will move up to No 3.

Du Plessis could not say much else. Having been replaced as the one-day captain by Quinton de Kock, initially without any explanation as if he had not been leading the one-day side for the past three years, he declined to look beyond this Test, which is likely to be his last at home; it may be his last anywhere.

The optimism generated by the victory at Centurion has dissipated rapidly – almost to the extent some South Africans seem to have forgotten that a win can level the series, which would be no disgrace.

England are now the favourites to prevail but anything is possible even though South Africa will be denied the presence of their star bowler, Kagiso Rabada, whose celebration of Joe Root’s dismissal in Port Elizabeth, earned him a fateful demerit point to add to the list. For the spectator his absence is a shame since Rabada roaring in at the Wanderers is well worth watching.

Without Rabada South Africa’s likeliest match-winner is Vernon Philander, who is playing his 64th and final Test. The Wanderers should suit him rather more than the sluggish surface at Port Elizabeth and this time there is no reason for Du Plessis to restrict his use on the grounds he wants to save him for another day.

Philander, 34, has been a wonderful throwback. In the 21st century it is very rare to find an opening bowler in Test cricket who barely bowls at 80mph but such is the magic in his wrist and fingers that if there is movement for the new ball, Philander will find it.

He has taken 222 wickets at 22.29 in Test cricket. His batting average is higher than that (24.51), which means he can be regarded as a formidable all-rounder. Next summer he heads to Somerset as a Kolpak cricketer, one of the last ones since new Kolpaks will not be permitted after next July, which will be a much-needed relief to South African cricket.

South Africa: Elgar, Malan, Van der Dussen, Du Plessis, Bavuma, De Kock, Philander, Maharaj, Nortje, Paterson, Hendricks.

England: Sibley, Crawley, Denly, Root, Stokes, Pope, Buttler, Curran, Archer, Wood, Broad.

Root must decide how many pacemen to play at the Wanderers and who would be the most effective. Especially if the forecast suggests rain interruptions and gloomy conditions they might dispense with their spinner, even though Dom Bess was so successful in Port Elizabeth. In 1995 and 1999 England made do with Graeme Hick and Michael Vaughan providing semi-professional spin; in 2005, 2010 and 2016 they had Ashley Giles, Graeme Swann and Moeen Ali respectively. None of them managed to take more than two wickets in an innings.

Root himself might decide to take on the burden of providing the spin option with a little help from Joe Denly. The statistics now suggest – as does the naked eye – that Root can, at least, be regarded as a superior bowler to Hick and Vaughan.

So there is the possibility of Mark Wood and Jofra Archer playing in the same side, which would be fun to watch. Moreover Chris Woakes, a blameless spectator throughout this series, could yet be drafted into the side if doubts about the fitness of Wood or Archer remain.

There will be much justifiable sympathy for Bess if he is omitted but it is infinitely preferable to be left out after taking six wickets for 87 runs in your previous Test rather than 0 for 110. Come what may his stock has risen rapidly on this tour and he is guaranteed a trip to Sri Lanka, which will surely include a place in the final XI in Galle in two months’ time.

Win toss..and bat (probably). There is grass but there should be pace throughout.