Rupee posts weekly rise on hopes of less aggressive Fed; premiums jump

FILE PHOTO: A man counts Indian currency notes inside a shop in Mumbai

By Nimesh Vora

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was little changed against the dollar on Friday, but posted a weekly rise on bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will pivot to smaller sized rate hikes from December.

The rupee closed at 82.47 on Friday, barely changed from 82.4900 in the previous session.

The local unit managed to carve out an 0.25% advance on a weekly basis.

The rupee, along with most other Asian currencies, had received a boost this week on bets that the Fed may not opt for another 75 basis points hike in its December policy review.

Weak U.S. economic data alongside the Bank of Canada increasing rates by less than what was expected, prompted traders to reduce the odds of a 75 bps rate hike in December to about one-in-three.

Treasury yields had dropped in response to the change in Fed's policy expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 20 bps from a week ago.

Traders will now eye next week's Fed meeting, where the central bank is most likely to deliver its fourth straight 75 bps rate increase.

More importantly, focus will be on whether policymakers reaffirm market expectations to set the stage for a smaller rate hike in December.

Apart from the Fed, investors await the Reserve Bank of India's additional meeting of its rate-setting committee to be held on Nov. 3, a day after the Fed decision.

And, while the meeting will potentially discuss the RBI's response to the government on its failure to stick to its inflation target for three quarters in a row, some traders were worried about the possibility of an unscheduled rate hike.

That led the rupee forward premiums higher.

The 1-year USD/INR implied yield rose to above 2.40% from 2.35% on Thursday. For the week, the yield was up about 20 bps.

(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Neha Arora)