‘Sonic 3’ Will Rule Holiday Box Office, but What About ‘Mufasa’?

With the domestic box office crossing the $8 billion mark this week, theaters will get a final boost of wide releases this weekend that will be tasked with carrying the box office momentum that “Wicked,” “Moana 2” and “Gladiator II” got rolling.

Leading the way will be Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” which comes into theaters with the advantage of strong goodwill from fans of the colorful Sega video game franchise. That goodwill was built by years of hard work from director Jeff Fowler and his team, turning a maligned initial trailer into a hit series that has borrowed more and more from its source material.

The first “Sonic the Hedgehog” grossed $319.7 million in early 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic cut its run short, and its April 2022 sequel earned $405 million at a time when it was unclear whether families were ready to come back. Now, Paramount is so confident in the series that it is giving “Sonic 3” the coveted holiday release slot with a reported $120 million budget, hoping that kids and longtime fans alike will want to see Sonic battle the Keanu Reeves-voiced Shadow the Hedgehog on the big screen multiple times.

Because of that reliance on legs, the opening total for “Sonic 3,” like any holiday title, is less important than it usually is. But current tracking has the film opening in the $60 million range — Paramount is projecting $55 million — with some exhibitors projecting a start closer to the $72.1 million opening of “Sonic 2.”

That would be a big start given that families will likely spread out their trips to see the film over the course of the holiday break in a way that they wouldn’t during the Easter break that Paramount looked to capitalize on back in 2022.

Initial reviews for “Sonic 3” are largely positive, but as last year’s video game movie hits “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Five Nights at Freddy’s” demonstrated, it’s the fan reception that truly matters for this film.

If gamers and kids are satisfied by Reeves’ performance as Shadow and the slew of references to “Sonic Adventure 2” and other games, a series-best final total of $200 million-plus domestic and/or $500 million-plus global is more than achievable.

It would be a welcome finish for Paramount, which in 2024 has had several modest theatrical successes like “Bob Marley: One Love,” “A Quiet Place: Day One” and the still-running “Gladiator II,” but hasn’t had a tentpole hit on the level of the “Mission: Impossible” films and does not have a film on the year-end top 10 list.

A film with a less certain fate is “Mufasa,” a prequel to “The Lion King” and specifically its 2019 CGI remake, which made $1.65 billion at the global box office started tedious debates over whether it held the record for the highest grossing animated film of all time before Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” swiped that record this past summer.

“Mufasa” is expected to open to a $50-55 million start, though Disney is hoping that word-of-mouth can help carry the film against the gamer-driven buzz of “Sonic 3” in the weeks ahead. Studio and theater insiders told TheWrap that while “Sonic 3” is outperforming “Mufasa” in presales for this weekend, “Mufasa” is doing better in presales for Christmas Day, though this was before the positive reviews for “Sonic 3” came pouring in.

Directed by “Moonlight” Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, “Mufasa” tells the story of how Simba’s father became king of the Pride Lands and features new songs by Lin-Manuel Miranda. Early reviews have been mixed with a 59% Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing.

With an entirely new songbook and story, “Mufasa” can’t rely on a familiar plot established songs like “Hakuna Matata” for its appeal, so Disney is turning to the visuals, promoting the film as one that should be seen in premium formats like Imax — which it will exclusively have this weekend — and 3D.

The promotional material has also shown off several scenes that showcase the tweaks that Jenkins and his team made to the “Lion King” remake aesthetic to make Mufasa and the other lions more expressive, answering a common criticism of the 2019 film. Whether that’s enough to get moviegoers to give the film a try will be key, especially overseas, where the spectacle of CGI animals drove “Lion King” 2019 to $1.11 billion.

With two billion-dollar hits in “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” already in the bag and “Moana 2” on its way to becoming a third, Disney doesn’t necessarily need “Mufasa” to be a massive hit like its Jon Favreau-directed predecessor. But after last year, where Warner Bros.’ “Wonka” was the only significant moneymaker, theaters could use a holiday season where the industry isn’t reliant on a single film to consistently bring the public in.

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