Volatility Favors Japanese Yen, US Dollar Breakouts

Article Summary: Elevated forex market volatility has coincided with outperformance in several of our sentiment-based trading strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future results, but our research shows that breakout-based strategies have historically done well in these market conditions, and we have adjusted our trading biases accordingly.

DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals – Forex traders continue to expect strong currency market volatility into February, and several of our sentiment-based trading strategies have seen noteworthy outperformance through recent market conditions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results, but we believe that similar forex volatility in the week and month ahead could produce similar trade opportunities in the near-future. More specifically, our Trend-following and Breakout-based systems have done well going long the Euro against the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) and Japanese Yen.

The EURUSD and EURJPY have fallen to start the new week, and early evidence suggests that a short-term EUR top could be in place. Yet elevated forex volatility expectations emphasize that traders should remain nimble amidst uncertainty.

DailyFX Forex Volatility Indices

Our volatility percentiles (shown in the table below) are almost all near 100%; forex options traders predict that volatility will be the highest it has been in at least 90 days.

Such highs in these options implied volatility-based indicators often coincide with outperformance in volatility-friendly strategies. Our statistical studies show that breakout-based trading strategies have historically done well in these conditions.

Strong moves similarly warn against employing range trading-based strategies on the risk of significant breakouts in price.

View the table below to see our strategy preferences broken down by currency pair.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

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