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Warning for African countries as coronavirus cases mount worldwide

Health officials prepare for a screening for the coronavirus at Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - STR/EPA-EFE/REX
Health officials prepare for a screening for the coronavirus at Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - STR/EPA-EFE/REX

Egypt, Algeria and South Africa are at a high risk of importing new coronavirus cases from China, experts have warned.

According to a study published in The Lancet, the three countries are the most likely in Africa to see more coronavirus infections due to strong travel and commercial links with affected Chinese provinces.

Egypt has already detected one case in a traveller from Asia, becoming the first country in Africa to report an infection last Friday. So far, no other cases have been identified on the continent but some 75,000 infections have been confirmed globally.

However, while the coronavirus is most likely to be imported into Algeria, South Africa and Egypt, the report found that these countries also have the best prepared health systems.

By contrast nations including Nigeria and Ethiopia - where the risk of importing the virus from China remains high - are far more vulnerable.

Coronavirus live map
Coronavirus live map

"[They have] moderate capacity, but high vulnerability and substantially larger populations potentially exposed," the report found.  Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana and Kenya were also flagged as more vulnerable.

Experts have been warning for weeks that the outbreak could become uncontrollable if it reaches densely populated African mega-cities.

Speaking at a conference in Seattle last week Microsoft founder Bill Gates warned that the coronavirus could trigger a pandemic and kill 10 million people if it reached sub-Saharan Africa, where health systems would be overwhelmed.

Dr Emmanuel Andre, professor of medical microbiology at KU Leuven University in Belgium, told The Telegraph that more cases in Africa were a matter of time.

"Many countries in Africa are super-connected with China. Over the last 20 years we have seen a huge increase in communication and China has invested millions in the continent," he said.

"But I think lots of nations [in Africa] have a very low capacity to deal with the virus - so it's important that we communicate and coordinate at an international level to prepare and respond to the outbreak," Dr Andre added.

Global Health Bulletin REFERRAL article
Global Health Bulletin REFERRAL article

In the Lancet report, researchers used data on the volume of air travel from airports in infected Chinese provinces to estimate risk. Vulnerability and preparedness levels were based on data from the World Health Organization and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index.

Dr Vittoria Colizza, author of the report and senior research scientist at Sorbonne Université, France, said that “countries remain ill-equipped” and urged countries to allocate increased resources to a potential outbreak.

“While almost three quarters of all African countries have an influenza pandemic preparedness plan, most are outdated and considered inadequate to deal with a global pandemic,” she said.

Dr Colizza added: “In addition, despite efforts to improve diagnostic capacity from World Health Organization, some countries do not have the resources to test for the virus rapidly, meaning that tests would need to be done in other countries.

“It is essential to train, equip, and strengthen the diagnostic capacities of hospital laboratories. Equally, increasing the number of available beds and supplies in resource-limited countries is crucial,” she said.

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