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Why the Premier League's new five substitutions rule favours the 'Big Six'

Soccer Football - Premier League - Tottenham Hotspur v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, Britain - March 1, 2020 Tottenham Hotspur's Troy Parrott comes on as a substitute to replace Ben Davies - REUTERS
Soccer Football - Premier League - Tottenham Hotspur v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, Britain - March 1, 2020 Tottenham Hotspur's Troy Parrott comes on as a substitute to replace Ben Davies - REUTERS

The immediate reaction to the news that Premier League clubs will be able to make five substitutions, rather than three, is that everyone will benefit from this temporary rule-change. What is also clear, though, is that some clubs will benefit considerably more than others. It suits everyone, in terms of the fitness of the players, but it unquestionably suits the bigger clubs, with the bigger squads, more.

It is therefore hard not to wonder what this all means for the “sporting integrity” of the league, and how the change might affect those teams who will find themselves stretched across a relentless run of summer fixtures.

Wolverhampton Wanderers, for example, have used just 20 players in this season’s Premier League, the fewest in the division. Nuno Espirito Santo has spoken about the benefits of having a “compact” squad, which of course had been built for a regular season, played at regular times of the year with regular breaks between matches.

Leicester City and Burnley, meanwhile, have used just 21 players each. Both these teams rely on a regular, core group of players. Brendan Rodgers and Sean Dyche will now have to choose between putting an increased strain on those players, or shifting some responsibility away from them and towards the fringe members of the squad.

What should be said is that, in Germany, the move has been seen as a success in preventing injuries and maintaining the intensity of matches. “You could see in the first matches that, after 60 or 70 minutes, the players were really tired because there was no preparation before and no friendly games,” Simon Rolfes, Bayer Leverkusen’s sporting director, tells Telegraph Sport. “It has been a really good thing ⁠— we have prevented injuries.”

At the other end of the scale to Wolves are teams like Manchester United and Chelsea, who are expected to come into the restart with fully-fit squads. There will be no shortage of options for Frank Lampard, who was struggling with an injury crisis before football’s suspension but will now have a wealth of options for the opening games, particularly in midfield and attack. Only Manchester City have made more than Chelsea’s 75 starting line-up changes this season.

As for United, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has used 28 different players across the campaign. Only Tottenham Hotspur, another club who were suffering with a string of injuries before the break, have fielded more players.

Substitutes used, 2019/20 Premier League season to date

Substitutes used by Premier League club's in the 2019-2020 season
Substitutes used by Premier League club's in the 2019-2020 season

It is therefore hard to avoid the sense that the rule change shifts the balance of power even further in favour of the so-called Big Six. As an example, look at the respective benches when Sheffield United played Manchester City in January. Chris Wilder’s options were as follows: Michael Verrips, Phil Jagielka, Kieron Freeman, John Lundstram, Ben Osborn, Callum Robinson and Lys Mousset. Combined cost: around £21 million.

Pep Guardiola, on the other hand, could call upon: Claudio Bravo, Joao Cancelo, Eric Garcia, Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden and Sergio Aguero. Combined cost: around £173 million.

It should come as no surprise that Aston Villa, Bournemouth and West Ham United — three of the four clubs who are understood to have voted against the change — are currently in the relegation battle. Logically speaking, this is a change to football’s rules that suits the favourites in matches, rather than the underdogs. The fourth side believed to have opposed the change are Sheffield United, who have used just 22 players this season. Again, there should be no surprise here, given the resources at Wilder’s disposal.

Either way, though, the reality of this condensed fixture list is that the big teams will be the beneficiaries. Even if the Premier League clubs had declined the option to use five substitutes, the clubs with greater depth would still benefit more when the injuries inevitably struck. This way, at least, managers will be able to manage their resources, picking and choosing when to deploy the key men and when to use the squad players.

It could also lead to more innovation. Graham Potter has made Brighton one of the more tactically fluid teams in the league, for example, and he could now feasibly flit between three or four different systems in a single game. No club has made more than Brighton’s 85 substitutes this season, and only Manchester City and Sheffield United’s substitutes have scored more goals (six each) than Brighton’s five.

Mikel Arteta at Arsenal could also thrive on having more ways of tweaking his tactics during a game. The same can be said for Carlo Ancelotti at Everton, or even Daniel Farke at Norwich.

As with so many of the decisions taken around Project Restart, this one is far from perfect. Most squads are not designed to be used in this way, and shifting the goalposts like this has unfortunate knock-on effects when it comes to the much-trumpeted competitiveness of the Premier League. When compared to the prospect of losing players to injury, though, it is easy to see why so many clubs have considered it the least-worst option.