Can you believe over one-third of the NFL season is already in the books? Week 7 got underway on Thursday with the shorthanded Browns pulling out a win at home over Denver. We saw massive line movement in that game over the course of the week that could have made the difference between a winning bet and a losing one.
We'll take a look at the some other betting lines on the Week 7 slate and talk our way through six different games to try and figure out where the value lies. All lines are as of Friday afternoon and courtesy of BetMGM.
Would you rather bet the Lions or Texans as three-score underdogs?
Detroit is still looking for its first win of the season, and it is a 16.5-point underdog in Jared Goff's return to Los Angeles. Houston is looking for its first win since Week 1, and it is a 17.5-point underdog against the undefeated Arizona Cardinals. Which huge underdog would you rather back?
Pete: This is disgusting. My original instinct is to back the Jared Goff revenge game, but this is also a Matthew Stafford revenge game. I also think Sean McVay might want to show up Goff after he arguably cost him a Super Bowl. Arizona looks great on both sides of the ball, but I think they are due for a sleepy effort. I'm not particularly worried about that from Los Angeles this week due to all of the narratives floating around. Give me the Texans after I throw up.
Greg: This is a fun “gun to my head” bet because I don’t think I would consider it otherwise. In fact, I could see this being one of the challenges on “Squid Game.” Are you betting your life on Jared Goff or Davis Mills? It’s not the largest of sample sizes, but all of the Texans’ respectable performances with Mills this year have come at home and they’ve been getting throttled on the road. Arizona is going to get theirs in this game and it’s going to be tough for Houston to keep up. Everyone expected the Cardinals' secondary to be trash, but their defense ranks in the top eight in completion percentage allowed, yards allowed per passing attempt, and sacks. I’ll take my chances with the superior coach in Dan Campbell and with Goff, who’s familiar with the Rams’ defense. Despite all their injuries, Detroit has a better team and more heart than the Texans. I’m putting my life in Goff’s tiny little hands. Give me the Lions.
Would you rather back the Chiefs or Saints as 4.5-point road favorites?
The Kansas City Chiefs are ien the favorite role again, this time as 4.5-point favorites in Tennessee against the Titans. On Monday night, the Saints are 4.5-point favorites in Seattle. Which road favorite are you backing?
Pete: As long as Tennessee stays within striking distance of the Chiefs and isn't forced to abandon the run, Derrick Henry should run wild on this Chiefs defense. I think this will be a back-and-forth game that comes down to which team has the ball last. On the other side, New Orleans is coming off a bye week, getting much healthier and are going up against Geno Smith. Geno has looked adequate replacing Russell Wilson, but i think we all expect an eventual implosion. I'll take the Saints.
Greg: Is it square of me to love the Saints this week? If a woman can marry a ferris wheel, why can’t I marry this line? New Orleans is the best run-stopping team in the NFL and now they get Kwon Alexander and Marcus Davenport back. Two of the beastly offensive linemen they’ve been missing have also returned to practice, which is bad news for a Seahawks defense giving up more than 140 rushing yards per game. Maybe I’m a fool to rush in and bet on Jameis, but this is my favorite line of the week and I’m completely uninterested in fading Derrick Henry against the Chiefs’ defense. I’m all over the Saints like white on rice that’s being thrown at us as we exit the church.
Would you rather back the Dolphins or Giants as small home underdogs?
Miami returns from London and has no bye week to fall back on. They are 2.5-point underdogs at home against the Falcons. The Giants are bad and banged up, but they're just 3-point underdogs against the Carolina Panthers.
Pete: The Giants will be without Andrew Thomas, Saquon Barkley, Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay on Sunday. Their defense has been terrible and MetLife Stadium offers no home-field advantage. I don't believe in Sam Darnold, but I still think the Panthers can beat this Giants team comfortably. The Dolphins-Falcons game feels like more of a toss-up between two bad teams, so I'll take the Dolphins.
Greg: Every week you give me one of these that takes a day off of my life. My insurance company asks me two questions: Are you a smoker and how often do you play “Would You Rather?” I don’t want either of these teams, Pete!
The Dolphins are in total disarray. How can you bet on any team that's this bad on both sides of the trenches? They’re one of the easier teams in the league to game-plan against and don’t have a single player on the roster where it’s like, “OK, we really have to watch out for this guy.” Atlanta isn’t a great team, but I could see them beating up on Miami. New York is missing its two best playmakers in Saquon and Kadarius Toney, so I don’t expect the Giants to do much against a solid Panthers defense. The question is: Which Sam Darnold are we going to get in this game? Ever since Christian McCaffrey got hurt, Darnold and this offense have been painful to watch. I’m more comfortable betting on Matt Ryan than Darnold at this point, so I’ll take the Giants.