'Guardians of the Galaxy': How a one-time underdog looks to catch lightning in a bottle twice
Three years after unexpectedly blowing the doors off the box office, Disney and Marvel Studios' "Guardians of the Galaxy" make their much anticipated return to theaters next weekend—and this time, they're no underdogs.
Forecasts put the U.S. opening weekend haul for "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" at a very healthy $130 million to $150 million. If those predictions hold, it could tee up a huge dividend for Disney and Marvel, whose bet on the once little-known property has paid off in a major way.
Back in the twilight of summer 2014, analysts were projecting the film about an obscure group of intergalactic misfits would debut to about $60 million. Instead, it posted a $94 million opening—setting a then-record for an August opening.
"Guardians of the Galaxy" ultimately became the fifth highest grossing movie in Marvel's series of 14 interconnected films.
"There was a huge question mark next to the title of this movie for a lot of people, analysts and critics included. And then once again Marvel worked their magic," said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at comScore.
Now, the franchise has the wind at its back. The star of leading man Chris Pratt has risen appreciably in the last three years, and fans are buzzing about the return of the rag-tag group that includes Star-Lord, Gamora, Rocket Racoon, Groot and Drax.
The movie drummed up the most new conversations in comScore's latest analysis on social media chatter. The total volume of talk has surged about 20 percent in the last month.
However, the sequel is not necessarily bulletproof. A big part of the allure of a sleeper hit like "Guardians of the Galaxy" is that they come out of left field, according to Dergarabedian.
"It's hard to capture lightning in a bottle twice, and it was that whole newness of it, the unknown quantity that played into the charm of it," he said.
Still, glowing reviews played a role in the first film's success, he noted, and history may repeat itself. "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" has an 88 percent "Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, trailing the original by just 3 percentage points and currently ranking as Marvel's seventh best rated title.
"Guardians" also stands to benefit from a relatively uncrowded release date, arriving three weeks after "Fate of the Furious" and two weeks before "Alien: Covenant" debuts, Dergarabedian said. It gets a chance to pull in holdouts during the Memorial Day holiday, he added.
BoxOffice.com is currently forecasting the movie's earnings will land somewhere in the $160 million range. The website has racked up a reputation for correctly forecasting out-performance in comic book movie adaptations, most recently coming closer to the bullseye on "Logan" than the broad consensus.
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" has one more trend on its side: With the exception of the Avengers franchise, the second movies in Marvel Studios series have outperformed the original at the box office.
