NFL betting: All-in on Matt Ryan and the Colts?
Is it OK to admit that I am a Matt Ryan fan? (Feel free to leave now.) You can’t blame me, though. I’ve always been a college football-only fan and didn’t really start getting interested in the NFL until 2016. It was the first year I played season-long fantasy football and it was in part to Matt Ryan having a great season. That year, Ryan was second in passing yards behind Drew Brees, led in yards per pass attempt, was second in passing touchdowns behind Aaron Rodgers, and he had the highest quarterback rating.
I know how capable Ryan is and I see an opportunity for him to shine again this year with a new team. Mind you, I also had the same thought last year when the Falcons hired Arthur Smith as its head coach. I’m rolling with the same thought for the 2022 season — Matt Ryan will have himself a year.
Why Matt Ryan is an upgrade from Carson Wentz
Do I really need to explain why this is true? OK, fine. Let’s look at some data points to back this up and compare the two quarterbacks. In 2020, Wentz was ranked 37th (out of 37) among quarterbacks with over 150 passing attempts in accuracy. Last season, Wentz was 33rd out of 36. Enter Ryan, who is night and day in comparison.
Wentz is 32nd in success rate and accuracy on non-play action passes, while Ryan is seventh. Wentz is 31st in success rate and accuracy on passes thrown of 10 yards or more, Ryan is third. Since 2015, Ryan has been in the top six for passing yards in all but one year, and that was last year when he was 11th. Wentz is barely cracking the top 25, if that.
Why Matt Ryan can thrive with the Colts
One: Ryan has a great coach in Frank Reich, who holds a 37-28 record with the Colts that includes two trips to the playoffs.
Two: Strength of schedule could certainly come into play. Last year, the Colts played the 13th-toughest schedule of passing defenses. This year, Indianapolis is expected to play the seventh-easiest. In 17 games, Ryan and the Colts will have only six games against teams inside the top half of passing defense, including facing the Tennessee Titans twice within the first seven weeks. That’s just on offense. Defensively, the Colts are projected to face the third-easiest schedule of offenses after facing the 18th-toughest last year. The schedule of quarterbacks includes names like Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz and possibly rookie Kenny Pickett.
Three: Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency could open up the passing game more. Behind a top-10 offensive line, and a schedule featuring the fourth-easiest of rushing defenses, Taylor should have another productive season. The Colts RB led the NFL in rushing yards and rushing scores last year — and that was after facing the second-toughest schedule of rushing defenses. Give him an easiest schedule and I can’t wait to see Taylor go off (again).
How to bet on the Indianapolis Colts
Perhaps I am overly optimistic but I am legit excited. Here are some betting options if you share the same optimism.
Matt Ryan to have the most passing yards (+3000)
As mentioned earlier, Ryan has been in the top six of quarterbacks for most passing yards every year except for last year, including 2016 when he was second. With a new coach, a friendly schedule of passing defenses and a team with a solid run game to open up the passing game, this wager has some merit.
Matt Ryan over 3,899.5 passing yards (-115)
In 14 seasons, Ryan has thrown over this total in the last 11 straight, including throwing for 3,968 last year, putting him at 11th in total passing yards amongst all quarterbacks. I know that Taylor is the go-to offensive player and the Colts can be run-heavy, so it may a risk to bet on Ryan. But if a coach is looking for a quarterback who can throw and gets that QB, then it’s because he’s looking to throw.
Indianapolis Colts to make playoffs (-170)
It seems like a slam dunk but the Colts need to work out some bad juju. In the first five weeks, the Colts face the Texans, Jaguars, Chiefs, Titans and Broncos. Oddly enough, Indianapolis does not have a good history against these teams.
First off, the Colts are 0-8 straight-up in Week 1 games. The Colts are 0-6 straight-up against Jacksonville since 2015, 0-3 straight-up against the Titans in the last three seasons, 1-4 straight-up in the last five and 1-2 straight-up on a short week (they face Denver in Week 5 on a short week). Under Reich, the Colts are 8-12 in Weeks 1-5 of the season but 29-16 in Weeks 6 and on. I’ll skip the season win total and look to the Colts to just make the playoffs. Reich, Ryan and Taylor — go on and have yourselves a year.
