Bill Belichick must crush this NFL Draft. The rest of his career — and Patriots' place in AFC East — may hinge on it
The most important NFL Draft of Bill Belichick’s career came in 2000, when the second-chance head coach trying to rebuild the New England Patriots managed, despite lacking a first-round pick, to select a few contributing talents (J.R. Redmond, Greg Randall) while famously uncovering Tom Brady with the 199th selection.
If not for that draft — or that Brady pick — we probably aren’t talking about Belichick as an NFL head coach all these years later.
On Thursday, Belichick will oversee his 24th draft in Foxborough and the stakes are as high as they were in the beginning.
Nothing will ever erase the six Super Bowl titles, but based on circumstances from recent performances, chatter from his boss and improvements across the AFC (and most notably in the AFC East), the 71-year-old’s future may rest on what goes down this week.
Simply put, he needs to crush this draft. Not in long-term prospects or contributors, but in immediate starters and difference makers.
If not, who knows if there will be a 25th draft.
“Bill Belichick: hot seat” seems absurd to write, but if any other head coach in the league was 25-25 the past three seasons, hadn’t won a playoff game in four years (the last one was, albeit, a Super Bowl) and was shuffling rehired coordinators around, it would be a forgone conclusion.
And then there are comments by Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who for the second consecutive year expressed public disappointment about the team’s recent results.
“In the end, this is a business,” Kraft said at last month’s owners meetings. “You either execute and win, or you don’t. That’s where we are at.”
Where Belichick is at is trying to improve a roster that went just 8-9 last season and is led by a young quarterback, Mac Jones, who certainly didn’t progress much in Year 2. Part of that was Belichick’s fault after handing much of the offense to a longtime defensive guy, Matt Patricia.
Patricia is gone now. Back is Bill O’Brien, the offensive coordinator for some of the Brady glory years and later head coach in Houston. That should help.
What would really do it though is an influx of young talent that is ready to play. The Patriots need some guys.
Belichick has 11 draft picks to land them.
They currently have slots in the first round (14th overall), second (46), third (76), fourth (107, 117, 135), sixth (184, 187, 192, 210) and seventh (245).
If there was ever a year for Belichick to be aggressive and package picks to jump around and get exactly who he wants, rather than acquire draft capital for years to come, it’s now.
Free agency — both in who was brought in and who was retained — bolstered depth and added some pop, but nothing that truly jumps off the page unless you really love wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster or tight end Mike Gesicki.
No, this is it. The 14th pick has to be somebody who will help immediately win games. Person and position isn’t as important as production. Whether it’s offensive line (Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Georgia’s Broderick Jones, Tennessee’s Darnell Wright) or defensive back (Illinois Devon Witherspoon, Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr.), he just can't be a project or a bust.
And then it needs to be repeated and repeated. Belichick likely needs four or five major additions in this draft — guys who are big-time parts of the team by midseason.
He needs an A-plus draft, something akin to 2010, when he grabbed Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Spikes and Aaron Hernandez in the first four rounds and rebooted a roster following a 10-6, wild-card round loss of a season.
New England isn’t just desperate for game-changers, it is staring at a climb up the standings that gets steeper by the day.
Buffalo is still Buffalo, current rulers of the division whose four consecutive victories over the Pats came by an average of 17 points.
The New York Jets just traded for Aaron Rodgers, an at least temporary solution to their seemingly forever quarterbacking problems. Couple him with a young, up-and-coming defense and the Jets are all in for the playoffs.
Miami, meanwhile, reached an AFC wild card last season, continues to build and has serious potential when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 100 percent.
The Patriots' schedule includes five additional playoff teams from last season: Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, the Los Angeles Chargers and the New York Giants.
Belichick has 298 regular-season victories and Kraft has said he’d like to see him get 31 more and surpass Georga Halas (318) and Don Shula (328). How many years he is willing to give Belichick to do it, however, is unknown. Patience seems slim.
“Look,” Kraft said, “I’d like him to break Don Shula’s record, but I’m not looking for any of our players to get great stats. We’re about winning and doing whatever we can to win. That’s what our focus is.”
This is the week Belichick can most impact winning in 2023.
He needs to hit and hit and hit and maybe hit some more. Eleven selections and a world of possibilities here in the draft weekend that may determine the rest of his coaching career.
