College football bowl projections: The chances of a 5-7 team in a bowl are high
There will need to be some upsets in the final week of the college football season if there aren’t going to be any 5-7 teams in bowl games.
After Miami (Ohio) came back to beat Ball State, 18-17, and secure a spot in the Bahamas Bowl, there are 74 teams eligible for bowl games. And with Rice and Appalachian State both needing to get a win to be eligible for a bowl game, the number of bowl-eligible teams will be no lower than 75. The Mountaineers are favored by 4.5 points in that matchup and need a seventh win for bowl eligibility because they have two wins over FCS teams so far this season.
But here’s the catch. There are 41 bowl games this year outside of the national title game. That means seven teams with five wins must win on the final weekend of the season for no 5-7 teams to head to a bowl game. And a lot of those five-win teams are underdogs.
Just four of the remaining teams needing a win in Week 13 are favored. Here’s a look at the lines, courtesy of BetMGM.
Favorites
Southern Miss (-3) at Louisiana-Monroe
Buffalo* (-4) vs. Kent State
Louisiana (-5.5) at Texas State
UAB (-17.5) at Louisiana Tech
*Buffalo is 5-5 after its game against Akron was postponed.
One-score underdogs
Missouri (+3) vs. Arkansas
Miami (+6.5) vs. Pitt
Florida Atlantic (+7) vs. Western Kentucky
Significant underdogs
Rice (+14) at North Texas
Vanderbilt (+14.5) vs. Tennessee
UTEP (+17) at UTSA
Michigan State (+18) at Penn State
Hoping for a miracle
Auburn (+21.5) at Alabama
Georgia Tech (+35.5) at Georgia
Which of those underdogs are you most confident in? All three of the one-score underdogs are at home, so they could conceivably win and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise. But would you count on that happening? A $50 parlay on all the favorites and one-score underdogs to win would pay over $2,000. The odds aren’t great of all seven of those teams winning outright.
That’s why it’s likely there will be at least one 5-7 team in a bowl game this year. And this is where academics come into play. Sub-.500 teams are selected for bowl games based on their Academic Progress Rate. That means Rice (994) is first in line if it finishes 5-7 because it has the highest APR of any potential 5-7 team.
We’re going to avoid selecting multiple teams to bowl games based on their APR in our next-to-last set of bowl projections and try to be optimistic. We’ll dive into the APR rates in a week if we have to. Hopefully we don’t. But we likely will.
New Year's Six bowl games
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30)
Clemson vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl (Dec. 31)
Kansas State vs. LSU
Peach Bowl (Dec. 31) [CFP semifinal]
Georgia vs. USC
Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31) [CFP semifinal]
Ohio State vs. TCU
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 2)
Tennessee vs. UCF
Rose Bowl (Jan. 2)
Michigan vs. Oregon
Other bowl games
Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 16)
Rice vs. Miami (Ohio)
Cure Bowl (Dec. 16)
Liberty vs. South Alabama
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 17)
Syracuse vs. Cincinnati
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 17)
Air Force vs. North Texas
LA Bowl (Dec. 17)
Boise State vs. Washington State
LendingTree Bowl (Dec. 17)
Toledo vs. Appalachian State
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 17)
Utah vs. Mississippi State
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17)
Middle Tennessee State vs. SMU
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 19)
UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Potato Bowl (Dec. 20)
San Diego State vs. Bowling Green
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 20)
Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 21)
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22)
Houston vs. Miami
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 23)
Maryland vs. Georgia Southern
Independence Bowl (Dec. 23)
BYU vs. UConn
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24)
San Jose State vs. UAB
Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26)
Utah State vs. Buffalo
First Responder Bowl (Dec. 27)
Memphis vs. Kansas
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27)
Fresno State vs. Louisiana
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 27)
Ohio vs. Troy
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 27)
Purdue vs. Oklahoma State
Military Bowl (Dec. 28)
Duke vs. Tulane
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 28)
Oklahoma vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 28)
Wake Forest vs. Washington
Texas Bowl (Dec. 28)
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 29)
NC State vs. Minnesota
Cheez-It Bowl (Dec. 29)
North Carolina vs. Baylor
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29)
Texas vs. UCLA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 30)
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Sun Bowl (Dec. 30)
Oregon State vs. Pitt
Gator Bowl (Dec. 30)
Florida State vs. Kentucky
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 30)
Wyoming vs. Eastern Michigan
Music City Bowl (Dec. 31)
Iowa vs. Florida
ReliaQuest Bowl (Jan. 2)
Notre Dame vs. Illinois
Citrus Bowl (Jan. 2)
Penn State vs. Ole Miss