College odds, betting: Clemson appears to be the right side against Florida St.
October has always been one of my favorite months for college football. It's bittersweet realizing the first six weeks flew by, but it's also the time of the year when teams begin coming into their own just in time for meaningful conference games. The Week 7 slate is filled with so many exciting matchups with massive implications throughout all the Power 5 conferences. So for this week's best bet, I decided to stick to where I'm finding success.
After successfully backing Florida State as a road dog last Saturday in a game they probably should have won outright, I will continue targeting the Seminoles in another ACC matchup. However, this time around, I'm fading Florida State as it hosts the fifth-ranked Clemson Tigers. I cashed on both these teams the previous two weeks against N.C. State, so we'll go full circle in the ACC with two teams I recently saw play against a common opponent.
Clemson (-3.5) at Florida State
A big part of why Florida State was a 3.5-point underdog last weekend was the concern around its ability to handle the physicality of N.C. State. I sided with the Seminoles based on my confidence they had the best quarterback on the field. That advantage became even more magnified when Wolfpack starter Devin Leary left the game with an injury. However, N.C. State came away with a 19-17 victory fueled by its defense holding FSU scoreless for the entire second half. N.C. State's defense had Jordan Travis under duress all night and recorded eight quarterback hurries and six tackles for loss. This week, the Seminoles face an even more ferocious pass rush with the Clemson Tigers.
If you are going to lay points on the road, you better be able to play defense. Clemson's strengths on both sides of the ball line up perfectly to exploit the Seminoles' weakness in the trenches. In addition, the Tigers' defensive line gets a massive boost with the return of standouts Bryan Bresee and Xavier Thomas. Clemson has the No. 2 defense in the country against the rush, allowing only 63.7 yards per game. With Florida State running back Treshaun Ward banged up, I don't expect the Seminoles to have any success there. The lack of a running threat puts the offensive line, which already ranks 71st in sack rate on standard downs, in a rough position against a relentless Clemson pass rush. This will be the coming-out party for a defensive line that will play close to full strength for the first time this season. The Tigers also get some key members of their secondary back, including Malcolm Greene and Tyler Venables.
Clemson's defensive dominance will also allow QB D.J. Uiagalelei to operate on short fields for most of the night. Uiagalelei's resurgence over the past few weeks has catapulted Clemson into the playoff conversation. He has consistently shown the ability each week to make key plays on the ground and through the air in critical situations. His 9.4% big-time throw percentage ranks third among all quarterbacks that have taken at least 20% of snaps this season. Clemson has scored at least a field goal in 100% of their red zone trips this season, an area where Florida State ranks 123rd in the country. It could be a significant factor in a game where the Tigers' defense is dictating field position. Uiagalelei has led Clemson to at least 30 points against all four conference opponents with an average margin of victory of 18 points in those four games. If the Tigers can score into the 30s against the Seminoles, we will cash this bet without a sweat.
*Stats provided PFF, Football Outsiders, teamrankings, and cfbstats.com.
