Advertisement

COMMENT: Will this be a status-quo election?

PAP, WP and SPP supporters at a nomination centre during the 2015 Singapore General Elections.

P N Balji is a veteran Singaporean journalist who is the former chief editor of TODAY newspaper, and a media consultant. The views expressed are his own.

Reading election tea leaves is a tricky and risky business.

The last time I did it, I lost a friend. He was very upset that I did not predict a WP victory in Aljunied GRC in 2011. I said it will be an extremely tight race. That was not good enough for him.

Four years later, I am at it again trying to analyse GE 2015 -- and trying to make another prediction -- at the risk of losing one or more of my friends.

So here it is: Get ready for a status-quo election with both the PAP and the WP not making much headway come Polling Day on 11 September.

The anger that built up like a wave against the establishment has petered off with the Prime Minister and his team doing everything to take the sting off hot-button issues like immigration, transportation and public housing. In an attempt to silence critics that it has swung too far away from its grassroots traditions, the PAP has parachuted fewer candidates fromthe elite military, administrative service and scholarship sectors. Of the 24 new faces, 15 are from the private sector with many displaying their grassroots credentials as yet another sign of changing times.

Finally, the redrawing of constituencies is likely to help the PAP stop the WP tide after the opposition made its historic inroad into a GRC in 2011. One more single seat has been created with some observers seeing it as an attempt to throw some meat for the opposition to bite and be happy.

The thinking is that the PAP must protect its GRC flank at all cost, even at the expense of sacrificing a couple of single seats. The change at East Coast GRC is the most striking. Hiving off Fengshan, situated smack in the centre of the GRC and which saw a 48.1 per cent vote for the WP,  and throwing newcomer Cheryl Chin into the fray, are like telling the opposition: We have no problem if you win this constituency.

But the WP is not biting. Instead of fielding one of its new heavyweight candidates like Leon Perera or Daniel Goh, it went for lawyer Dennis Tan.

The GRC is a prestige issue for the PM. Under his watch, the party has lost the first GRC and a further erosion will only throw a question mark on his moral right to lead the party. So will a drop in the popular vote which sank to a post-independentlow of 60.1 per cent in 2011. That is why we have seen the Cabinet moving left of centre decisively in its social policy with its unprecedented perks for the pioneers. It doesn’t want a repeat of what happened the last time round with those aged 65 and above swinging away from the ruling party.

That is also why the PAP is trying to make the PM an important plank in this election. Posters with his smiling face are plastered all over the place to tell Singaporeans what the stakes are.

How PAP pushes the Aljunied Town Council issue will set the tone for this election. For the past one year, it has been on a war path with ministers and MPs attacking the WP for its lack of financial judgement. This is a double-edged sword. Push it too hard and it can boomerang on the PAP.

Expect Low Thia Khiang to play the underdog card here. He is likely to press home the point by saying that a number of hurdles were put in his way, especially during the handover of the town council management.

We are going to see a very different WP this time round. Already missing is the swagger of 2011 when Low made the biggest gamble in recent polling history by moving from his comfortable seat in Hougang to a riskier one in Aljunied.

The PAP will force the WP to be defensive by pinning it down with the Town Council issue and the Opposition will have no choice but to defend its turf vigorously.

In this clash of the political giants, let us not forget that there is another party that needs the voters’ attention. Chee Soon Juan’s SDP appears to be on a reformative path trying to shake off its image of confrontational politics and street protests. Convincing Paul Thambyah to back him is a sign that Chee is a changed politician.

Also, his party’s use of social media tools to explain its policy alternatives in simple words, graphics and videos have not escaped public attention. This is all on paper. Anything can happen in the run-up to Polling Day.

The biggest danger for the ruling party is its ability to trip itself up. Just one sentence or word – like what we saw in Aljunied in 2011 – can return to haunt the PAP. Its womb-to-tomb control of Singapore life makes it vulnerable to events that are outside its control.