Copeland is just the start for Theresa May's special brand of Conservatism

The Conservative victory in the Copeland by-election was astonishing. Not since 1982 has a Tory government taken a Labour seat – and that was in the middle of the Falklands War. Theresa May’s capture of Copeland represents a historic, peace-time advance into the northern working class – on some measures, it was the best performance since 1878. As the national polls indicate, this is not just a rejection of Labour or an argument over nuclear power but an endorsement of Mrs May’s very special brand of Conservatism. Triumphalism is alien to her nature: she will be thinking carefully about what to do next. She has a chance to turn her agenda into practical reality, and must seize it.

Conservatives enjoyed more than one victory on Thursday. Copeland showed that they could face down a Labour campaign that warned that babies would die due to healthcare cuts if people voted Tory. This offensive nonsense failed to convince. As several commentators joked darkly, faced with a choice between Jeremy Corbyn and death, voters chose death.

Meanwhile, Ukip did not attain the breakthrough it was hoping for in Stoke-on-Trent Central. Ukip wants to define itself as a working-class populist party, which is sensible. But its inability to win the seat handed the Tories another win: it saved Mr Corbyn’s job. Had he lost two seats, the Labour leader might have been forced to retire. But he is just about deluded enough to imagine that one victory means hope is not lost.

Astonishingly, there appears to be no likelihood of him being removed by Labour for the moment. The question is, does Mrs May exploit her luck and trigger a general election or go back to work and wait until 2020? The decision is finely balanced. Labour is on course for its worst performance since the Thirties and a bigger Tory majority would help on Brexit, grammar schools, tax reform and much else. But Mrs May may also fear that the public is tired of elections and may not wish to re-ignite certain aspects of the Brexit debate. 

What is certain is that Mayism, a bold attempt to reconcile globalisation and self-government, needs to be buttressed by radical domestic reforms to ensure its practical success, and to help the Tories dominate the political landscape for years to come.

Labour’s NHS strategy, for instance, failed miserably in Copeland because nobody trusts Corbynomics. But a subtler approach might work in time, especially with another, better leader. This week we reported that 15,000 beds have been cut from hospitals in the last six years; last month, three quarters of hospitals reported dangerously high occupancy rates. The service is in trouble. With the nation already taxed to the hilt, change is urgent. That means transparency, better management, more private capital and competition in the delivery of care. Everything must be on the table: GP charges, co-payments or new social insurance systems. There must be a serious strategy to address social care and its costs.

Then there is the question of what the British economy will look like post-Brexit. Mrs May understands that Trumpism will not fly in the UK: our future lies in free trade, not protectionism. The big challenge is to use free market, welfare and education reforms to bring the variety of regeneration that has worked so well in London and the South East to deprived areas such as Copeland and Stoke. Old jobs will never return. So new, high-paying ones need to be encouraged in part by promoting entrepreneurship. Regulations need to be removed and a cultural revolution ushered in that raises aspiration, innovation and educational achievement.

The Budget is in two weeks, and nothing about it will be easy. The Chancellor has to square austerity, which is necessary, with policies that encourage growth and confirm that the Government wants to help the Just About Managings. What we have seen of Mrs May thus far suggests that she does not dodge hard work or controversy, which is partly why she is so popular, and so we hope for an economic direction that ultimately helps the voters of Copeland to help themselves. Cut taxes, reform public services, get Brexit right, increase the country’s global competitiveness – and the battle of Copeland can point to victory in the war on socialism.