The Overhang: How Dak Prescott and Cowboys can be effective against a 49ers defense that's given them trouble

We're having a bit of a different focus on The Overhang this week. Rather than look across the league at different players and trends, I am going to look at one particular game and one particular side of the ball. Think of it like "The Plan" portion of this space, but expanded (and expanded some more).

The NFC heavyweight battle in Week 5 between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers warrants this kind of attention. There is recent (and historical) history between these two teams, and both sides have stars at every position.

I am focusing on the Cowboys' offense and how it matches up and can have success against the elite 49ers defense. San Francisco is the bogey team for Dallas that ended its past two seasons in the playoffs. How can the Cowboys fare this time around?

Oh, and also a Prop at the end for Chicago Bears-Washington Commanders, because duh.

(All data via TruMedia unless otherwise noted.)

Can Cowboys jab away at 49ers' banshee defense?

The 2023 San Francisco 49ers' defense has a new coordinator in longtime NFL assistant Steve Wilks. But the Niners returned many of the same players of their star-littered nucleus that has formed one of the best units in the entire league on either side of the ball.

Schematically, the 49ers have, for the most part, remained the same under their new play-caller. They blitz at around the same rate as they did under former defensive coordinator (and now Houston Texans head coach) DeMeco Ryans. Their style in each coverage has remained the same, just with a few different emphases.

There is an uptick in a couple types of coverages, like Cover 4 and man-to-man, from the 49ers' defense. But it’s just dials being adjusted with a new user behind the controls. Just a little more bass, a little less treble.

What has remained exactly the same has been the speed, intelligence and trademark ferocity that this defense has been known for in recent years, with linebacker Fred Warner being the epicenter of the hivemind along with Pro Bowl-caliber running mate Dre Greenlaw. Warner roams the middle of the field like a rim-protecting center in the paint (Frekembe Mutombo?), forcing difficult throws for quarterbacks, short gains for pass-catchers and knifing through blockers to corral running backs before they can hit the line of scrimmage:

The 49ers force offenses to eke, scratch and claw their way down the field. They make the middle a war zone. Their defensive backs room features a reigning first-team All-Pro in Talanoa Hufanga, and they have feisty cornerbacks on the outside in Charvarius Ward and ascending player Deommodore Lenoir. I’m even a fan of new nickelback Isaiah Oliver, who has put together a couple of solid weeks after a slow preseason.

This defense’s M.O. is to limit offensive gains to minimal damage. The 49ers have surrendered the lowest rate of explosive plays (rushes of 12-plus yards, passes of 16-plus yards) through four weeks since the NFL went to 32 teams in 2002. This lack of yards make offenses feel desperate as they fight for air. The 49ers dare teams to drop back further and attack deeper down the field, but that approach exposes them to playmaking defensive backs and their banshee-filled pass rush.

Because on top of their stifling coverage, San Francisco has a strong front led by players both homegrown (Nick Bosa, Drake Jackson, Arik Armstead) and acquired with various levels of investment in free agency (like Javon Hargrave, who leads all defensive tackles in pressures this season). With defensive line coach Kris Kocurek diversifying his pass rush portfolio in a way that would make Wu-Tang Financial proud.

So, what do you want to challenge? Do you keep jabbing at a defense that’s like Floyd Mayweather’s Philly Shell and expose yourself to a mistake and counterpunch? Do you push the ball and open yourself up to a team that features the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and a defensive tackle who was paid $40 million guaranteed this offseason and has 14 sacks since the start of the 2022 season?

What Dak Prescott can do against a 49ers team that has given him trouble

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense have attempted to solve that conundrum the past two seasons, and went home dazed and confused. The 49ers held the Cowboys to a frustrating day in last season's divisional round, while Ryans emptied the kitchen sink with blitz packages in the 2021 season's wild-card round:

Prescott has evolved throughout his career with a methodical style that feels throwback in today’s spread-and-shred era. He's a quarterback who is more than willing to get underneath center — the only quarterback to be in shotgun less frequently than Prescott this season is Kirk Cousins. Prescott also loves to pepper defenses underneath with a brutally efficient style, and will rear back and take his chances when he sees a cut developing in the defense. Since the 2019 season, Prescott is third (THIRD) among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in passing success rate. His 50.7% rate is behind only the NFL’s current Sith Lords Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (with the gap between Allen and Prescott being just a handful of plays).

While he does not have the chaotic playmaking of Allen or the creativity of Mahomes, Prescott is just effective. He’s a baseball player who – check your reports or I’m going to point at Pete – gets on base. There was much made about Prescott’s interceptions last year, with a chunk of those being unlucky bounces of the oblong-shaped ball ...

... or a feature rather than a bug of Prescott’s style. He is willing to push the ball when the opportunity strikes, challenging defenders in coverage to keep them from teeing off:

That can lead to a bad bounce every once in awhile. Or in 2022’s case for Prescott, a lot of the while. There’s risk to it, but it’s a needed element to give breathing room to a Cowboys offense that ranks second in designed rush rate on first and second down (behind, appropriately enough, only the 49ers), and has a passing game that reflects their quarterback’s preference for nickel-and-diming.

Head coach Mike McCarthy has fully leaned into this crouch-and-low-kick attack in the 2023 season. Prescott is currently averaging the quickest time to throw in his entire career, and he's working underneath more than ever, too, with his average air yards sitting at a late-career Drew Brees-like 5.7 air yards per attempt, easily lowest in the NFL.

Where Cowboys can find success against 49ers

This is a “styles makes fights” type of matchup with previous bouts on the résumé. What if a defense that wants to use that Philly Shell goes against an offense that wants to punch and attack just like Mayweather does, firing in those jabs that start to add up over the rounds? It’s a Ken vs. Ryu matchup, a bend-but-don’t-break defense that consumed a bottle of the ooze going against the “you’re going to eat your 5 yards and you’ll like it” offense.

The 49ers' defense has limited explosive plays this season at a historic rate. But San Francisco is going against a team that chooses to get in a half-court offense and grind for points. The Cowboys play complementary football with their elite defense by averaging the most plays (7.6) and longest time of possession (3 minutes, 33 seconds) per drive in the entire league.

The Cowboys do this by their aforementioned heavy lean toward a run game that currently ranks 12th in rushing success rate on first and second down. Their fastball is pulling linemen for gap scheme runs like counter and power. (No team has run gap scheme more often and for more yards than the Cowboys this season, according to SportsInfoSolutions.)

The rushing attack for the Cowboys will likely have to be focused out of lighter personnel featuring more wide receivers. The Cowboys like to vary up their personnel groupings, including ones with multiple tight ends, which gives them the luxury to pivot their run game week by week. But San Francisco's defense is stout when the 49ers trot out their base personnel (four defensive backs) grouping, allowing an efficient run only one out of five times when offenses have tried it, sixth-best in the NFL this season.

Their rank drops to 22nd when the 49ers use their nickel (five defensive backs) personnel grouping. Perhaps that's fool’s gold based on small sample size. Perhaps it's a weakness that could be exposed.

Also, because this game is so fricken’ awesome, it features potential top-tier kaiju battles with Cowboys guards Zack Martin and second-year player Tyler Smith (playing at an All-Pro level through four weeks) going against Armstead and Hargrave. We’re talking “final battle in Pacific Rim” level here.

In the passing game, this is where the more traditional elements of Prescott’s game and the overall Cowboys offensive attack can be focused to their advantage against the 49ers. Those underneath throws come in a variety of ways for Prescott. One is checkdowns on play-action; he’s currently using play-action at the second-highest rate among qualifying quarterbacks, which again is this offense playing complementary football but with their run game this time.

But also on quick game. The Cowboys have always had this aspect of the offense with Prescott (I would prefer to do stuff I’m good at, too). They use staple three-step dropback concepts that keep themselves in favorable situations to stay balanced. For example, here is a smattering of quick game passes from Prescott in Week 4:

Prescott is allowed to use his high football intelligence to make snap decisions and get the ball in his playmakers’ hands, which also limits the pass rush and leaves defenders frustrated. The Cowboys are also getting a boost from their upgraded pass-catching unit this season. CeeDee Lamb is a star who continues to get better (he has been a monster on the outside this season), Michael Gallup looks healthy and newcomer Brandin Cooks is a reliable auxiliary weapon. Dalton Schultz, now with the Houston Texans, was a favorite underneath target for Prescott over the past few years, but second-year player Jake Ferguson has a lot of promise as a true three-down tight end, showing off consistent hands and plenty of explosiveness as a pass-catcher while also more than holding his own as an in-line blocker. He’s a keeper that keeps ascending.

Prescott has had success against the 49ers using quick game even in those playoff losses, going 26-of-31 for 189 yards with a touchdown and, most important, no sacks and a successful play rate of 48.4% on passes thrown in 2.3 seconds or shorter. That mark would make him the ninth-best quarterback in 2023 if that’s all he threw. If success rate isn’t your thing and you’re more into the traditional stuff, Prescott’s quarterback rating was 102.7 on those pass attempts, with the 49ers in the bottom eight among the alphabet soup of metrics against these types of passes.

The Arizona Cardinals, who have actually been feisty this year (even beating the Cowboys in Week 3), and quarterback Joshua Dobbs also had success in using quick game against this 49ers defense last Sunday:

(Seriously, though, check out the Cardinals some time. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is doing some cool stuff. And the defense is the right kind of weird.)

The Cardinals and Cowboys use the same types of quick game concepts in those compilations. But I’ll highlight one in particular called “spacing” that is a classic tune for all offenses, but featured by some acts more than others.

This concept allows the quarterback — if he can think quick enough — to beat defenses with horizontal width and timing. Prescott beat the Patriots’ blitz by targeting Gallup (top of screen) on his hitch route in the voided area left by the blitzer (Jahlani Tavai, No. 48).

This is a great example of how quick game can help mitigate any pass protection concerns. Even with backup left tackle Chuma Edoga late to slide in to pick up the blitzer and leaving a free-running pass rusher (red), Prescott finds the void and it sets up a second-and-1 for the Cowboys on the next play.

The Cardinals get to their spacing in a little different way, running their play out of a split backfield as opposed to a bunch alignment like the Cowboys. Focus on where the players end on their routes as opposed to how they got there:

Dobbs hit the bottom receiver in a tight hole before the 49ers' pass coverage could close, going for a nice, efficient gain to start their drive and make the trek against that defense a bit easier.

The 49ers, if you noticed, stomped out any yards after the catch on all of those plays against the Cardinals. That’s life in the NFL against an elite defense. The 49ers have had Prescott and the Cowboys' number the past two matchups. It doesn’t mean the Cowboys are hopeless in this third tilt. This game feels like a fistfight, which is perhaps why my brain couldn’t help but go to so many boxing and fighter game references. But the jab-and-parry aspect of the game could be just as interesting as the knockout haymakers both teams try to throw. It’s a bit of a game of chicken and a bit of 8D chess boxing.

And this is on just one side of the ball! The Cowboys' defense vs. the 49ers' offense is a co-main event worth staying glued to. It gives this game all the makings of what hopefully ends up being a regular-season classic on Sunday night between the class of the NFC.

And just because I said that, blowout here we come!

The Prop

This is a post-script, but I like Justin Fields rushing over 47.5 yards for Thursday night's game. The Commanders have allowed the fourth-most scrambles to quarterbacks since the 2022 season started and are league-average in defending designed quarterback runs. Look for Fields to get into creation mode against a very good Commanders defense, and check out player props on BetMGM.