Does Narendra Modi have a Punjab problem?

A miniature city has mushroomed just hours away from Delhi, ruled by Indian farmers from the breadbasket state of Punjab. Stretching over 6km of the national highway connecting Punjab to the capital New Delhi, this protest city stands as a blot on the otherwise dominant position enjoyed by Narendra Modi across northern India.

Though the farmers have been camped out here since February, they see Saturday’s voting across Punjab – part of the final day of India’s marathon election – as their best opportunity yet to have their voices heard by the government in Delhi.

Their demands for state-backed guarantees on prices for certain key crops date back to when huge farmer protests brought Delhi to its knees in 2020 and 2021, finally forcing Modi to repeal a set of agricultural reforms and agree to set up a minimum support price (MSP). They say he has failed to keep that promise and are furious that he could nonetheless be on the brink of winning an historic third term in power.

“We’ve been sitting here for 108 days. And our demonstration will go on for longer until our demands are met and agreed upon,” says Sukhwinder Singh Sabhra, a protest leader. “If the government is thinking we will pack up our bags and go in a few days if they don’t react, they are wrong. We have villages and villages deep inside Punjab on rotation. Our next generation will come and sit here for the next 10 years if needed.”

The Independent met the farmers earlier this week, and all said they would briefly leave their posts at the protest on Saturday to go back home and take part in the general election, keen to have their chance to express their frustrations at the ballot box.

Around 24 million voters in Punjab are eligible to cast their votes in all, and the scenes from February of clashes between farm protesters and Delhi police armed with tear gas, batons and water cannon are fresh in the mind for many in this agrarian state.

While the result of the election will not be known until votes from all seven phases are counted on 4 June, Modi has long been seen as the heavy favourite, with his BJP a well-oiled machine up against rivals that have had their campaigning ability decimated by legal and financial investigations by the authorities.

It’s a different story in Punjab, however, where the national opposition party AAP leads the state government and where there are louder voices critical of the Modi administration’s record – asking what he is doing about unemployment, or whether all Indians are benefitting equally from the country’s economic growth.

“[Modi] has forgiven 16 trillion rupees [of debt] to his corporate billionaire friends but not forgiven farmers’ loans worth only around 13 to 14 trillion,” says Hardeep Singh, a farmer protesting at the Shambhu border between Punjab and another agrarian state, Haryana. “He doesn’t even look at us, forget about any attempt to meet us halfway on these demands.”

Garwant Singh, a farmer in Punjab’s Fatehpur village, refers to government data suggesting one farmer every hour dies by suicide in India. “No one likes to tie a noose around their neck. It’s out of desperation. Every year, a farmer hopes their debt will be waived off, but it is never waived but only increases. That is why farmers are resorting to taking their lives,” he says.

His friend Jasveer Singh, who grows okra and gourds in his field, says the prime minister has made farmers look like beggars, even though he says their demands are the bare miminum to protect the agricultural sector therefore in the state’s interest.

“We don’t fret about ration, we don’t want Modi to give us anything for free. Just give us the promised minimum support price, the right price, for our produce. We are not beggars. We happily give away our produce to anyone passing by and is in need. But the government has forced us to become beggars,” Singh says.

The two are part of Sanyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), a popular farmers’s union that represents more than 40 farmers’ groups and until now has sought to use the Gandhian principle of non-violent resistance against Modi to get their demands met. Punjab’s turn to vote in the general election offers a different kind of opportunity.

“A ballot box is the most powerful force in politics, not the governments and certainly not their leaders, and Modi should remember this. We will leave a mark on his political career and end it here in Punjab,” says Ramindra Patiala, a member of SKM’s national coordination committee.

Between 4 May and 31 May, he says Punjab police recorded more than 250 demonstrations and protests against BJP politicians who tried campaigning in the state. He shows videos where SKM farmers like Singh chased BJP candidates away on foot and raised black flags.

“The farmer in the north remembers. During our protests, they branded us terrorists, anti-national, separatist forces. We didn’t give him power as Indian prime minister to take our livelihoods, and destroy our agrarian economy,” Patiala tells The Independent.

A bad result for Modi in Punjab is unlikely to cost him the election, but experts said the importance of the state means it cannot simply be ignored in a third BJP term. “[Modi] will be forced to pay attention, to address the Indian agrarian crisis, and these demands are long-standing. These needs cannot be wished away by political magic or statecraft alone,” says Anand Kumar, a former professor of sociology at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Nearly 10,000 state police and paramilitary forces turned Punjab into a fortress ahead of Modi’s visit to the state for the final rally of his re-election campaign on Thursday. There had been some speculation beforehand that the prime minister might pull out of visiting Punjab altogether. In the end, his speeches here mentioned neither the demands being raised by farmers nor the protests blocking the main highway back to Delhi.

This political vacuum is being filled by Modi’s immediate rivals – AAP and the main national opposition party Congress, both of which are members of a broad opposition alliance dubbed INDIA.

Rahul Gandhi, scion of India’s most prominent political dynasty, addressed a rally in Punjab’s Ludhiana on Friday and announced to cheers that if INDIA wins the election, it would form a panel to waive farmer loans. Farmers typically use loans to cover their startup costs and while they only normally range between a few thousand rupeesto Rs 100,000 (£1,000) many end up trapped in inescapable debt due to high interest rates.

His AAP ally, Sanjay Singh, a close aide of the jailed Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, tells The Independent that the opposition understands that you cannot rule Punjab without being a friend of the farmers. “We will implement the MSP demands, waive off farmer loans and debt and look after every need of theirs that we can meet,” Singh says.

“You [Modi] have broken the backbone of this country, its food provider, you’ve lied and deceived them. You’ve targeted them with tear-gas, beaten them with sticks, and even tagged them as terrorists, separatist forces, Pakistanis. You have troubled the farmers in every way possible. That’s why PM Modi isn’t brave enough to face them in Punjab,” he says of Mr Modi’s brief campaign stop in Punjab.

“This is not the community which cowers down under pressure. That’s why Punjab is fighting back with full force,” he warns.