England: Why Gareth Southgate is rolling the dice at Euro 2024

Gareth Southgate threw his future into sharp focus on the eve of Euro 2024 by admitting he will probably step down as England manager if they do not win the tournament.

“I’ve been here almost eight years now and we’ve come close,” Southgate told German publication Bild. “You can’t constantly put yourself in front of the public and say, ‘A little more please,’ as at some point people lose faith.”

Southgate has always been conscious of outstaying his welcome as England boss and he is more swayed by supporter sentiment than the view of his Football Association paymasters, who would like the 53-year-old to extend his contract beyond December, whatever happens at the Euros.

The Euros will be his fourth major finals and he appears to sense that his time in charge of England is drawing to a natural conclusion.

In this light, his decisions in the build-up to the tournament point to a manager with little left to lose, finally preparing to throw caution to the wind.

He named a surprisingly bold and experimental squad — 12 of the 26 players are at their first tournament — and bucked a trend by largely picking on club form over historic performances for England.

The likes of 20-year-old Adam Wharton (one cap), teenager Kobbie Mainoo (three), Anthony Gordon (three) and Eberechi Eze have been preferred to former regulars Jordan Henderson, Marcus Rashford and Jack Grealish.

There are some indications too that Southgate may be willing to be braver tactically in Germany. As recently as March, Henderson still appeared likely to start in midfield this summer, as an experienced but uninspiring runner next to Declan Rice.

Southgate, though, is considering unleashing Henderson’s former Liverpool teammate Trent Alexander-Arnold as a ball-playing No8 in the group stage.

One way of looking at such a youthful squad is that Southgate is building for a new cycle with England and keeping one eye firmly on the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico.

More plausible, though, is that he is determined to go out with no regrets, not wondering what might have been if he had been braver in his selections and tactics. He has spent nearly eight years gradually building England into a formidable international team — from a well-drilled but stodgy outfit, reliant on set-pieces, at the 2018 World Cup to an expansive, technical side in Qatar 18 months ago.

Southgate has proceeded with a caution that has frustrated his critics, slowly moving away from a back-three and an emphasis on speedy wingers to a more progressive approach, but all the while sticking by a core of trusted, senior players.

Now, though, he has shaken up his squad both on and off the pitch, leaving this England team reliant on some new leaders and needing to form new relationships quickly.

Southgate can argue that he has always been ruthless, which is true enough (see the way he phased out Wayne Rooney and Joe Hart, among others) and that international football requires abrupt periods of evolution.

On the eve of the Euros, though, he feels like a gambler who has thrown in all his chips on one last hand before preparing to walk away from the table. As Southgate has acknowledged, after so many near misses, there is a sense that nothing short of glory will count as success for England this summer.

Southgate’s legacy in the job could now be defined by the success of his big, brave play.