Erik ten Hag can only save his legacy, not his job, in FA Cup final as Manchester United eye fresh start
If last season's all-Manchester FA Cup Final felt like part of a beginning for Erik ten Hag and Manchester United, today’s rematch is surely an ending.
The 2-1 defeat to Manchester City at Wembley a year ago, decided by Ilkay Gundogan's double, was painful, but came at the end of a season of progress, in which Ten Hag's side won the League Cup, returned to the Champions League and appeared to be gathering momentum as a force again.
Today, the outlook for the Dutchman is very different, and while the head coach will view the game as another opportunity to convince United's new part-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe that there is still life in his project, the die has surely been cast.
It has been an historically wretched campaign for United, including a lowest-ever Premier League finish, 14 defeats and a first-ever negative goal difference. Change is inevitably coming at Old Trafford, even if they spring an almighty surprise at Wembley.
United must win to avoid facing just a second season without European football since 1989-90, which would be another low for this coach and team.
Mauricio Pochettino, who parted ways with Chelsea on Tuesday, outgoing Bayern Munich boss Thomas Tuchel, Ipswich's Kieran McKenna and Roberto De Zerbi, who has left Brighton, are all now looming large over Ten Hag.
His best chance of remaining in post might be United bungling the recruitment process, with Bayern's impending appointment of City legend Vincent Kompany, following a string of high-profile rejections, proving that super-club status does not guarantee interest from top coaches.
As much as anything, the clash against City is, therefore, a chance for Ten Hag to go out on a high and burnish his legacy by giving supporters a memorable day out.
If his side can pull off an unlikely triumph, it would actually put Ten Hag level with Jose Mourinho as United's most successful coach post-Sir Alex Ferguson (the Portuguese claims to have won three trophies, but including the Community Shield is a stretch) and put a more positive spin on his tenure.
For many United players, today's showpiece will also be an ending. Only a handful of the squad — Alejandro Garnacho, Kobbie Mainoo, Rasmus Hojlund and perhaps Amad Diallo — feel safe this summer, in what could be an unprecedented fire-sale under a new manager and director of football. United desperately need a fresh start with Ratcliffe and INEOS, and, to borrow a phrase from Ange Postecoglou, change means change.
For homegrown pair Marcus Rashford, who was this week left out of the England squad for Euro 2024, and Scott McTominay, club captain Bruno Fernandes and the likes of Harry Maguire, today's game could be a chance to finish in style or a final, crushing disappointment.
As for City, the champions are aiming to make more history by becoming the first club ever to win a double-double. In doing so, they would sustain a record of winning 50 per cent of all major trophies they have competed for since Pep Guardiola's first title in 2017-18, with 14 of 28. No English side has ever enjoyed that concentration of success in the same period of time: Liverpool managing 12 of 28 available trophies between 1979-86 and Ferguson winning nine honours in seven years in his most fruitful spell at United.
A widely-expected City win would be another piece of Guardiola's remarkable legacy, but another alarming marker for the competitive balance of the English game. While the players and Guardiola deserve to be celebrated, state-backed City are just too dominant, to the point where no rivals can hope to really compete.
Their success is a result of Abu Dhabi's boundless wealth and ambition, coupled with the genius of Guardiola, and while nothing around the Catalan should be taken for granted, he has one more year at his contract at City, another 12 months of potential domination ahead. And really, that is why change at United feels so important this summer — and why Ratcliffe must get it right when deciding where to go with the head coach.
Today is an important chance for United to save their miserable season but, in many respects, it feels like a free-hit. A more realistic aim is to build over the next year and be in a strong position to capitalise on any uncertainty at City if Guardiola calls time on his era of domination at the end of next season.
