Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Why it's time to deal away Shohei Ohtani
Buying low and selling high is the most basic concept in a fantasy sports trade market. But within this concept, there are plenty of nuances.
Buying low is the easy part of trade decisions because it usually involves a degree of optimism, which makes us feel good. It’s fairly easy to find the buy-low options. Simply look for players who are off to slow starts but have solid track records of success and are at ages when rapid decline doesn’t make sense. And those who are willing to put in an extra bit of research can look for players who are struggling with their fantasy-related stats but are shown to have been unlucky when looking at advanced metrics.
Most managers can quickly look through the player pool, find a few names who scream, “This player will soon turn things around” and then start crafting a trade offer.
In years of writing these articles and dishing out advice in chat sessions, I have found that selling high is the hardest thing for fantasy managers to do. It’s the fantasy version of looking a gift horse in the mouth. The manager drafted a player who is greatly exceeding expectations, which feels awesome. But to sell high, the manager needs to conclude that the player is not going to be able to maintain his recent success in the long run. That’s a tough pill to swallow, as it’s a negative viewpoint on something that is otherwise going very well. And of course, every breakout season begins with a surprisingly hot start. But I can tell you that in my 25 years of playing fantasy baseball, most hot starts have flamed out as the season progressed. Once again, the nuance of separating the fool’s gold from the real thing is the key to victory.
I’ve listed a few players below who I believe are poised to eventually get a reality check on their hot starts to the season. Those who disagree should keep them on their rosters, but I hope that many of you will consider floating their names in trade talks in the coming days.
Shohei Ohtani (SP, Los Angeles Angels)
Well, if I’m going to recommend selling high, I might as well come out swinging!
The hype train on Ohtani was speeding out of control after the WBC, and his hot start to the season has made his bandwagon grow only larger. The hitting version of this unicorn should be fairly priced right now, but on the pitching side, Ohtani has walked 13 batters across 21 innings while benefiting from a .154 BABIP and a 90.9% strand rate. My goal in trading Ohtani as a pitcher would be to market him as a top-five ace, which he definitely is not. I believe that is an achievable mission in many leagues.
Matt Olson (1B, Atlanta Braves)
Olson would be a tough player to trade, and I would want a massive return for him. His power is legit, and in Atlanta’s deep lineup, he could reach triple digits in runs and RBIs. But he is not a four-category star, as he has benefited from a .417 BABIP en route to producing a .296 average. The 29-year-old has logged a 34.5% strikeout rate and will likely soon regress toward his lifetime .251 batting mark.
Dustin May (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Crafting a narrative around May is easy right now — he’s the next in a long line of Dodgers pitchers to outperform their peripherals and turn into a fantasy star. But unless May improves his skills in the coming months, even the power of the Dodgers' pitching magic won’t be enough to maintain his lofty fantasy ranking. The right-hander owns an ugly 6.5% K-BB rate, and most of his ERA indicators paint him as someone who is far from a fantasy star. I’m not suggesting that things are dire, but I would be happy to trade May to someone who believes he is a No. 3 mixed-league starter.
Nick Castellanos (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
Castellanos’ start to the season fits the definition of “fine” more than “hot.” Still, I believe things are going to go south from here. After struggling last year (.694 OPS), the slugger has been better this time around (.811 OPS). However, his .294 average has been propped up by a .476 BABIP, and he has yet to put a ball over the outfield wall. Additionally, the 31-year-old’s 33.3% strikeout rate is a career-worst mark. I’m not suggesting that you can get a massive return for Castellanos, but I would be happy to trade him for anyone I would feel good about rostering for the balance of the season.
Myles Straw (OF, Cleveland Guardians)
Straw is similar to Castellanos in the sense that I would be happy to get anything of value for him right now. The speedster can certainly swipe bags that aren’t first base, and right now, his .391 BABIP is propping up his ability to collect base knocks. There are no signs of improvement in Straw’s batted-ball profile, and in fact, his .235 xBA is similar to the mark he logged in his disappointing 2022 season.
