Fantasy Football Quarterback Fades: There's only one reason to avoid drafting Josh Allen
The Yahoo Fantasy Football crew is identifying the specific players at each position they're fading this draft season. It could be for any number of reasons: They're not high on the player, the draft cost is too much or a situation is set up for disappointment. First up, the quarterback picks from Andy, Matt, Scott and Dalton.
Not chasing the back-to-back MVP
Andy Behrens: I haven't given much serious consideration to Aaron Rodgers in drafts to this point (Yahoo ADP of 89.4, QB11), and I'm not filled with regret. For one thing, I do not enjoy the cognitive dissonance involved in being a Bears fan while actively rooting for Rodgers in my fantasy life. Also, as much as I like Allen Lazard as a fantasy option this season, we shouldn't pretend the losses of Davante Adams and MVS won't negatively impact Green Bay's passing game. Nobody should be surprised if Rodgers delivers a perfectly fine yet unspectacular year statistically — much more like his 2018-19 performance than 2020-21.
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Don't be the first to draft a QB
Scott Pianowski: There are a million reasons to like Josh Allen but one reason to fade him, the ADP of 20.7 overall. Because you can do well at any ADP point, I'm not going to be the first person to draft a quarterback. I'd much rather play the waiting game at the position and make sure I load up on my running backs and receivers early. It's nothing personal, Josh. I'm just a value shopper at this one-fill position.
Welcome to the "quarterback dead zone"
Matt Harmon: My third tier of quarterbacks (QB8-13) could be entitled “clear fantasy starters but not likely difference-makers.” What could launch a player out of this tier and make them a significant advantage at quarterback would be blending high-end rushing skills with strong passing (for example, Trey Lance is in this tier). That means the guys with little to no extreme running upside in this group are all stuck here. Those players are Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.
Burrow has by far the highest Yahoo ADP among that trio at QB5 (53.4 overall), making him a fade for me. For this entire group, you will need them to be hyper-efficient as passers to maintain the tier gap between other non-rushing quarterbacks like Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins. Burrow obviously has the receiver talent and pure ability to get that done but it’s tough to justify the opportunity cost of taking him in his draft range ahead of other more important positions like running back and wide receiver.
[2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DEFs | Ks]
Herbert is being overvalued in drafts
Dalton Del Don: Justin Herbert is a 24-year-old playing sports’ most important position who just tossed 38 touchdowns during his second year in the NFL, so he’s a true superstar. But he’s also being drafted too highly in fantasy leagues (Yahoo ADP of 37.9), as he’s commonly the No. 2 or 3 QB off the board (and the QB2 according to Expert Consensus Ranks) despite lacking the rushing upside of a handful of other quarterbacks going after him. Herbert also got a modest 7.5 YPA last year, when he was the QB8 in expected fantasy points, which should be right around his projection for 2022.
