Fantasy Football Week 11 Wrap: C.J. Stroud has his first ugly game of 2023
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans
The Texans held on to win despite being shut out in the second half by an Arizona team with the worst fourth-quarter point differential (-63) since 2009. The matchup surprisingly turned into a defensive battle during a game with this week’s highest total.
C.J. Stroud had 259 yards (10.8 YPA), two touchdowns and the most passing yards over a three-game stretch by a rookie ever by halftime. But he struggled mightily over the final two quarters, throwing two bad fourth-quarter interceptions inside the 25-yard line with Houston up five points and within field-goal range. Stroud finished with three picks on the day against a soft Arizona defense that hadn’t recorded a takeaway since Oct. 22. He remains a must-start in fantasy leagues, but the rookie has committed six turnovers over the last two weeks while experiencing growing pains (that he’ll overcome).
Devin Singletary had an impressive touchdown run and recorded back-to-back 100-yard rushing games for the first time in his career. Dameon Pierce’s eventual return will cut into Singletary’s touches, but he’s clearly Houston’s lead back moving forward.
Tank Dell had six catches for 120 yards and a touchdown in the first half and was this week’s No. 3 fantasy receiver despite a quiet second half. He saw another 10 targets despite Nico Collins’ return and is averaging 11.7 looks (with four TDs) over his last three games. One of the rookie’s most important plays of the game was not throwing a pass on a trick play that wasn’t open downfield. Collins led the Texans with 11 targets and is a top-25 fantasy WR moving forward, but I’m ranking Dell higher.
Kyler Murray missed Trey McBride on a big fourth down in the fourth quarter, when the Cardinals ended all three of their drives by turnover on downs. Murray was nearly a top-five fantasy QB this week despite throwing for just 214 yards and one touchdown, as he was once again busy running (including a nice TD on fourth-and-goal). His lone pick required a nice play by Derek Stingley Jr.
Murray missed some throws Sunday, but he’s going to have a ton of fantasy value now freed from Kliff Kingsbury’s system.
Rondale Moore’s lone target resulted in a long touchdown during the game’s opening drive, while Greg Dortch benefited most from Michael Wilson’s absence while leading Arizona in targets and receiving yards (on no one’s fantasy team).
Thanks to Murray, the Texans allowed 100 yards rushing for the first time since Week 4.
Jalen Thompson went out of his way not to touch Dalton Schultz before the tight end scored his touchdown.
OC Bobby Slowik seemingly called a run on first-and-10 every opportunity he had during the second half, although Stroud’s bad picks make the counter harder to argue. Still, it must be noted how frequently Stroud was asked to throw in second/third-and-long situations — a theme throughout his rookie campaign.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Justin Fields looked good during his return, playing through a bloody thumb and running for the third-most yards (104) among all players this week. He just missed Tyler Scott for a potential long gain in the fourth quarter, and Fields should be considered a borderline top-five fantasy QB moving forward.
DJ Moore benefited from Fields’ return as expected, making an incredible play during a third-and-long situation. Moore has caught all six of his touchdowns this season from Fields, including another one Sunday.
D’Onta Foreman scored but got hurt and saw 10 fewer carries than Khalil Herbert, who made his return from IR. Fields led Chicago with 18 carries, but his presence also greatly improves the offense. Herbert, who led the NFL in rush yards over expectation last season and was really coming on before suffering an ankle sprain, looks like the preferred fantasy option.
Jared Goff’s struggles against Cover 2 continued, as he threw three interceptions Sunday. He was lucky two more passes weren’t picked off, including a would-be 97-yard pick-six early in the second quarter (Jahmyr Gibbs would score on the next play). Goff is typically money at home, so expect him to bounce back against Green Bay on Thanksgiving.
Gibbs scored and was active as a receiver against a tough Chicago run defense, but he also lost a goal-line score to David Montgomery one play after being stopped at the one-inch line late in the fourth quarter. The two will continue to split work in a good situation, with Gibbs the favorite for targets and Montgomery for goal-line work.
Jameson Williams caught a touchdown during one of his three targets, while Aidan Hutchison ended the game with a safety.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence was fantastic, posting a completion percentage over expectation (+15.6) in the 95th percentile. He also shook off concerns about his knee injury by running for two touchdowns. Lawrence has struggled when moved off his first read but benefited by facing a Tennessee defense allowing the highest first-read throw percentage in the league.
Travis Etienne had a sub-par fantasy game, but there’s zero reason to worry about his workload. Eight of Tank Bigsby’s nine carries came during the final drive in a 34-7 blowout, and the rookie’s biggest impact was committing a penalty during a punt that allowed Tennessee to convert an early fourth down.
Calvin Ridley had his best game of the season in a highly favorable matchup, as he continues to produce more with Zay Jones on the field. Ridley was twice able to get two feet in bounds in the end zone Sunday after routinely falling just short all year.
DeAndre Hopkins caught a long touchdown thanks to some trickery but was otherwise shut down by a Jacksonville secondary missing Tyson Campbell.
Will Levis somehow got 9.3 YPA and posted a 143.8 Passer Rating during the blowout loss. He also committed a bad lost fumble and attempted just 17 passes.
It was hard for Derrick Henry to get going during a game that saw Tennessee run just 38 offensive plays (Jacksonville had 69).
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa had a nice game, but the Dolphins were surprisingly held to just 20 points at home coming off a loss and a bye. Miami entered averaging 43.5 points at home this season, but Las Vegas played its third straight competitive game under new coach Antonio Pierce.
Tyreek Hill went to the locker room (a tradition while playing at home this season) in the second quarter but returned and put up his usual massive line, as Jaylen Waddle continues to take a backseat. Waddle had zero receptions until he started getting involved while Hill was in the locker room.
De’Von Achane left after re-injuring his knee on his first carry of the game in a nightmare scenario for fantasy managers. The rookie somehow still leads the league in carries for 20+ and 40+ yards this season on just 39 rush attempts, but his size/durability looks like a hurdle to true fantasy stardom.
Raheem Mostert didn’t smash despite Achane leaving early in a game that Miami was 13.5-point home favorites against a Raiders defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. Salvon Ahmed also left injured, so Jeff Wilson Jr. (who was a healthy scratch) is back on the fantasy radar.
Davante Adams saw another 13 targets and finally cashed one in for a long score. Adams could easily be a top-five fantasy WR down the stretch with the volume he’s seeing from Aidan O’Connell.
The Raiders matched their previous season total in fumble recoveries (two) in the first half, while the Dolphins’ offense topped 400 total yards for the fifth time this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy entered leading the NFL in YPA, QBR, EPA and Passer Rating. He finished Sunday’s game with a perfect 158.3 Passer Rating and a CPOE (+16.4) in the 96th percentile. Purdy cleared 300 passing yards midway through the third quarter, tossed three touchdowns and was fantasy’s No. 2 QB on Sunday. He’s an MVP candidate.
Christian McCaffrey started a new touchdown streak and broke the record for most receptions by a running back over his first seven NFL seasons.
Brandon Aiyuk only needed five targets (he’d finish with six) to record a career-high 156 yards. His 76-yard score was the longest touchdown catch of the NFL season until Khalil Shakir bested him later in the day.
George Kittle led San Francisco with nine targets and has scored half as many touchdowns over 16 career games with Purdy than he had over 76 games before BCB.
Mike Evans’ first catch of the game was a touchdown late in the second quarter, while Chris Godwin had zero targets at halftime.
Baker Mayfield threw his first red-zone interception in his last 240 passes.
A Rachaad White juke ended Talanoa Hufanga’s season.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love continued to show real growth, while Jayden Reed continued to make plays.
Aaron Jones and backup Emanuel Wilson were both carted off with injuries in the second quarter, leaving AJ Dillon as Green Bay’s lone back in the second half. It’s been a rough season for Jones, who at least appears to have avoided a season-ending injury.
Romeo Doubs entered leading the league in end-zone targets and pulled down one Sunday.
Christian Watson didn’t see his first target until just 11 seconds were remaining in the first half and should remain on fantasy benches despite catching a touchdown. Reed has become the more valuable dynasty player.
Justin Herbert had a big fantasy game during the loss, leading the Chargers in rushing yards.
Austin Ekeler got 6.4 YPC in a prime matchup but saw just 10 rushing attempts, lost a fumble and was curiously quiet as a receiver. Touchdowns and targets will be there for Ekeler, but he’s clearly playing through an injury and gets the tough Ravens defense up next.
Keenan Allen led the NFL with 16 targets this week, suffered a brutal dropped TD in the sun but also caught a touchdown. He might be the favorite to lead the league in targets moving forward with the disappointing Quentin Johnston continuing to struggle mightily.
Joey Bosa left with a possible serious injury in the first quarter.
Stone Smartt took advantage of Gerald Everett’s absence and was a top-three fantasy tight end this week despite recording just one catch.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp was quiet before leaving with an ankle injury late in the second quarter.
Puka Nacua scored on his first target of the game late in the second quarter and was much busier after Kupp departed. Nacua’s fantasy value gets a major boost if Kupp misses time.
Royce Freeman dominated LA’s carries, while Darrell Henderson scored and led the team in targets. Kyren Williams could return in Week 12 and will likely re-take the Rams’ lead-back role.
Kenneth Walker left with an oblique injury during the first drive, and Zach Charbonnet saw a career-high 21 opportunities as a result. Charbonnet can’t do some of the things Walker can, but his fantasy value skyrockets with the injury. That’s especially true if the rookie inherits Walker’s role at the goal line, where he leads the NFL in carries inside the five.
Geno Smith also left with an elbow injury, with Drew Lock (0.5 YPA) throwing a pick and missing an open Jaxon Smith-Njigba downfield during his six passes. Smith returned for Seattle’s final drive, which fell just short when Jason Myers missed a 55-yard field goal after making his previous 15 attempts. It’s unclear if Smith will be ready to start Thanksgiving night against the 49ers.
DK Metcalf has twice as many touchdowns (two) against the Rams this season than he does the rest of the league. Los Angeles entered allowing the second-fewest TDs to WRs.
JSN is showing some life.
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson continued to benefit from throwing underneath and targeting Courtland Sutton in the red zone during Denver’s fourth straight win.
Sutton has scored in seven of his last eight games, while Javonte Williams deserves a pass against a Minnesota defense that’s been completely shutting down the run.
Joshua Dobbs fumbled/bobbled two of the game’s first three snaps, losing the second on a big hit that should’ve drawn an unnecessary roughness penalty. Dobbs leads the NFL in yards per scramble and has finished as at least a top-13 fantasy QB five straight weeks.
Alexander Mattison led the Vikings with 18 carries but saw just one target and lost a costly fumble. Ty Chandler impressed while getting 7.3 YPC and seeing four targets. It looks like a two-back committee in Minnesota.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Tony Pollard finally scored for the first time since Week 1 during a powerful run in which he carried multiple defenders into the end zone. Pollard got 5.1 YPC and saw five targets, but the fourth-quarter touchdown saved yet another disastrous fantasy performance during a highly favorable matchup. A banged-up Rico Dowdle saw 67% as many carries, as Pollard is likely to continue to disappoint moving forward.
Dallas won once again by a wide margin, although Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb cooled off their recent scorching paces. The Cowboys offense isn’t quite the same on the road, but the Panthers have quietly been horrible fantasy matchups for opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers.
Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are in a full-blown timeshare on a bad offense.
Bryce Young’s total EPA was in the third percentile, but at least Adam Thielen continued to see a sharp increase in targets as expected against a man-heavy Dallas defense.
Central Catholic’s finest DaRon Bland recorded his fourth pick-six of the season, already tying the NFL record.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Tommy DeVito took a whopping nine sacks but got 9.5 YPA with three TD passes and zero turnovers during the upset win that knocked many out of Survivor pools. He was a top-10 fantasy QB while becoming the first player in Giants franchise history to throw five touchdowns over his first two starts. DeVito moved New York’s offense better than at any point this season, although a favorable matchup certainly helped.
All 83 of Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards came after just one minute was remaining in the third quarter. He was incredible as a receiver Sunday, catching two touchdowns while finishing as this week’s top fantasy back.
Darius Slayton caught a touchdown before departing with an injury, as New York’s shaky WR group got even thinner.
Sam Howell once again produced fantasy points thanks to 45 pass attempts and a TD run, but he threw three costly interceptions, including a pick-six to seal the game. The Commanders committed six turnovers during the loss.
Brian Robinson led Washington with nine targets and is a top-15 RB with Antonio Gibson out.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen had a big bounce-back performance against a tough defense, while Zach Wilson was finally benched. Allen leads the NFL in touchdown passes, turnovers and interceptions, although his lone pick Sunday was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half.
Gabe Davis had zero targets, while Stefon Diggs was scoreless with his fewest receiving yards on the season in a game Buffalo scored 32 points. Diggs somehow has just 61 receiving yards over the last two games.
New York hadn’t allowed a TD to a WR since Week 1 until Khalil Shakir caught the longest score of the NFL season Sunday. The Jets still haven’t allowed a wide receiver touchdown to a non-Buffalo team this year.
Jets wide receivers combined for nine yards, with Garrett Wilson providing all of them on eight targets (also losing a fumble).
The Jets lost a fumble on the opening kickoff, which was a sign of things to come.
For what it’s worth, Tim Boyle was somehow even worse than Wilson, but will get the Week 12 start. Where’s Trevor Siemian?
The 6-5 Bills have the fourth-best point-differential (+104) in the NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Kenny Pickett and Dorian Thompson-Robinson combined to throw for zero touchdowns and fewer than 275 yards. Both QBs are destroying their receivers' fantasy values, although DTR peppered David Njoku with the second-most targets (15) among all pass catchers this week.
Jaylen Warren was this week’s No. 2 fantasy back despite seeing just nine carries against a tough Browns defense playing historically well at home. Najee Harris saw three more carries but gained nearly 100 fewer yards, thanks in part to Warren’s impressive 74-yard house call.
Diontae Johnson was held catchless in the first half and finished with just 16 yards on eight targets. It was a tough matchup, but Pickett now has fewer career games with multiple TD passes than Tommy DeVito.
The under here sure looks obvious in hindsight.
