Football betting, odds: Best bets for the USFL playoff matchups, and one future to jump on now
The USFL regular season ended in exciting fashion with two unlikely teams securing spots in the postseason. While the South Division will feature a rematch of last year's divisional championship between the Birmingham Stallions and New Orleans Breakers, the North has a pair of new entrants with the Pittsburgh Maulers and Michigan Panthers.
Big wins this past weekend for both Pittsburgh and Michigan helped them earn divisional tiebreakers despite having losing records (4-6). The new blood in the North Division championship is great for a league dripping with parity, but it also sets up the likelihood of a lopsided championship game. For our final USFL betting preview, I will break down each of this weekend's divisional finals and go over why I think it’s more advantageous to make your wager now on this year’s USFL champion.
Michigan Panthers +3 at Pittsburgh Maulers (O/U 38.5)
I am not even sure how either of these teams got here. Pittsburgh looked left for dead at 2-6 with only two weeks remaining, while Michigan spent the second half of the season in the basement of most power rankings.
In true spring football fashion, the Panthers turned to backup QB E.J. Perry in the most important game of the season. Perry weaponized his mobility as the Panthers roared back with 17 unanswered points to shock the Philadelphia Stars, 23-20. Turnovers and poor red-zone execution plagued the Panthers all year, so Perry’s wheels inside the 10 give Michigan a fighting chance in this one.
However, the Maulers' defense allows the second-fewest yards on the ground, and leads the USFL in both takeaways (20) and turnover differential (+8). That should be the difference. Despite the books finally catching up and opening Pittsburgh’s total under 40, I still think the under is the best bet. These two teams played twice this season with Pittsburgh winning both, 23-7 and 19-7. I have bet the Maulers under every game of the season and went 8-1-1. Their games average only 35.5 total points, and this matchup pits them against the league’s lowest-scoring team (17.1 ppg). Best Bet: Under 38.5
New Orleans Breakers +2.5 at Birmingham Stallions (O/U 44.5)
If the XFL hadn’t taught me a lesson, I’d say this is the league’s championship game for all intents and purposes. The two best teams, and the only two teams in the league to finish the season with winning records, square off for a third time after splitting the season series 1-1.
I have said from the beginning of the season, the Breakers are the most talented team in the league, but they continue to self-destruct when it matters most. They beat Birmingham, 45-31, back in Week 3 while exploding for 7.3 yards per play. Their roller coaster of a season saw them jump out to a 4-0 start, only to drop their next three, before finishing the season with three straight wins. Which Breakers team should we expect in the biggest game of the year? It’s hard to be confident they keep the momentum going after seeing them crumble in so many big spots this year.
The Stallions are last year’s defending champions and have the much more reliable QB when the game is on the line. Alex McGough leads all starting quarterbacks in passing touchdowns (20), completion percentage (67%) and yards per passing attempt (7.9). I will lay anything up to a field goal and bank on Birmingham’s experience to get it done. Best Bet: Birmingham -2.5
USFL championship winner — Birmingham +130
Most sportsbooks have futures odds out, listing the Birmingham Stallions as favorites to repeat. This is a great opportunity to take our Birmingham bet one step further and secure a nice price on the Stallions. Birmingham is a -150 favorite on the moneyline this weekend against New Orleans, implying a 60% probability it advances. We are already invested in the Stallions making the finals, so playing them at +130 to win the title gets us ahead of what is going to be a very wide line in the championship game. Let’s look at how the Stallions were priced against their potential opponents in the regular season.
Pittsburgh - Birmingham closed at BetMGM as an 8.5-point favorite and -333 on the moneyline. The Stallions won, 24-20, but failed to cover as a massive favorite.
Michigan - Birmingham closed as 5.5-point favorite and -222 on the moneyline. The Stallions won, 27-13, and covered easily despite losing the turnover battle. The odds were shorter than their matchup with Pittsburgh, but they were also coming off their second loss of the season. I don’t expect Michigan to get the same credit, considering Birmingham will be riding a six-game winning streak if it reaches the finals.
The final reason I’m on board with buying Birmingham now is the advantage the Stallions will have on the sidelines. All three of the other coaches in the playoff field are on their first tour in the USFL, while Skip Holtz has proven that he can lead his players to a championship. It may not be the sexy pick taking the favorite, but getting them now at +130 makes too much sense, considering they could easily be at -300 next week.
