GOP House control set to hinge on tight California races

The Democratic stronghold of California is set to play a key role in House Republicans’ efforts to keep control of the lower chamber in 2024.

California became an unexpected battleground last year, ultimately delivering the GOP its slim majority — and next year’s battle for the House could come down to a handful of districts in the largely liberal Golden State.

California is “critical” for Republicans in 2024, Sacramento-based Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said. “If they lose three or four of these seats in California, then they’re losing the House.”

And for Democrats, the road to taking back the House “is definitely going to travel through California,” said Steven Maviglio, a California-based Democratic strategist.

Renewed focus has turned to the state in recent days after former Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — the first person to be ousted from the top House role — announced he’ll resign from Congress at the end of this year.

Though McCarthy’s district is expected to stay safely in Republican hands, his decision not to run for reelection has raised questions about how it could impact other California GOP candidates and invited new attention onto races that could determine House control next year.

Republican Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao and Mike Garcia – from California’s 13th, 22nd and 27th districts respectively — are among Democrats’ top targets next year. They all won their elections during the midterms by single digits, and their districts swung to Biden back in 2020.

Democrats and Republicans are also eyeing the open Orange County seat of California’s 47th Congressional District, which was vacated after Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) announced she was running for Senate. The major contenders for the seat include Republicans Scott Baugh and Max Ukropina and Democrats Dave Min and Joanna Weiss.

Stutzman argued Republicans “really have a shot” at a pickup opportunity with the Porter seat.

Democrats in the race for Porter’s seat are pointing to their stances on issues such as abortion, as well as endorsements from sheriff and labor organizations, as reasons to be confident in their chances.

“The idea that Californian women wouldn’t be really interested in [the issue of abortion] or that voters across the district wouldn’t be interested in the issue because we feel like our rights are safe … is frankly wrong,” Weiss, the founder of progressive group Women for American Values and Ethics (WAVE), told The Hill.

Min has received endorsements from Porter, the California Democratic Party, and groups including the Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs and unions. The first-generation Korean American also points to his strong performance among Asian American voters as a factor in his state Senate win.

“You can look at my background, whether it’s going to the [Securities and Exchange Commission] to start my career, whether it’s working for Sen. [Chuck] Schumer, at the Center for American Progress, you know, I have shown a deep commitment to doing what’s right and trying to make this country better,” Min said.

Baugh maintained that McCarthy’s decision to leave Congress isn’t impacting his race.

“It hasn’t slowed us down at all. In fact, I fully anticipate Kevin McCarthy still being involved. And so I don’t think it changes anything,” Baugh told The Hill.

Ukropina, a businessman, has branded himself as the opposite of a “career politician.”

“That’s what myself and other candidates across California represent, right, we’re a younger, more business-minded people who want to start winning again,” he told The Hill.

Four other House seats in California — held by Republican Reps. Ken Calvert, Young Kim, Michelle Steel and Kevin Kiley — are also in play next year. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates Valadao, Duarte, Garcia and Calvert as “toss up” seats, while Steel’s seat is “lean Republican,” and Kim and Kiley are in “likely Republican” slots.

All seven seats, plus Porter’s open slot, are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of targeted districts.

“Vulnerable incumbents John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, and Ken Calvert are stuck between a rock and the far-right — pandering to the extreme fringes of their party, supporting wildly unpopular abortion bans, and tying their fates to the likes of Mike Johnson while their biggest benefactor, Kevin McCarthy, calls it quits,” Dan Gottlieb, a spokesman for the House Democrats’ campaign arm, said in a statement. Gottlieb also targeted Baugh on the issue of abortion and his previous “wokism” comments.

Some Republicans are still reeling over losing McCarthy, though McCarthy said in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal last week that he would “continue to recruit our country’s best and brightest to run for elected office.”

“Kevin McCarthy offered a ray of hope to Republican candidates … in the right district and the right race on the right issues, that Republicans can win in California,” Republican strategist Matt Klink explained. “So his loss — until someone else in the state steps up and assumes that mantle of leadership — it’s going to hurt.”

Valadao, who has been the subject of to some speculation over a possible run for McCarthy’s seat, told The Hill in a statement that “no matter what title he holds,” the former Speaker “will still be a key player in helping Republicans win races throughout our state.”

Republican strategist John Thomas said that while the state GOP has done a good job of recruiting candidates, Republicans also face challenges around top-of-the-ticket candidates and registration efforts.

“I think where [the California Republican Party] have bigger challenges is both in total registration efforts,” Thomas said. “I think they have challenges in lack of resources, financial resources, and then they also have challenges in the statewide, like top of the ticket, that there’s not a lot of motivating factor outside of the presidential to turn out and vote en masse.”

Republicans are projecting confidence over their prospects in the Golden State.

“For several cycles now, California has been the top battleground for competitive House seats in the nation, and 2024 will be no different,” California GOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement to The Hill. The party had added close to 50,000 Republican voters between February and October of this year.

Nationally, the GOP sees reason to feel optimistic about California’s House races.

“Total Democrat control of Sacramento and D.C. unleashed historic inflation, surging violent crime, skyrocketing gas prices and rampant homelessness,” said Ben Petersen, a spokesman for the House GOP campaign arm, in a statement. “Fed-up Californians have an ally in House Republicans, who are laser-focused on solving the problems plaguing their families, while the extreme Democrats running for Congress would make these crises worse.”

But Democrats, too, feel good about their prospects in the state. House Majority PAC communications director C.J. Warnke pointed to the dollar amount its allocated to the state for 2024.

“California presents more opportunities to win seats than practically any other state in the country which is why earlier this year we announced our $35 million Battleground California Fund. Republicans in California have offered their constituents nothing but extremism and chaos over the last year and they will be voted out in 2024,” Warnke said.

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