India's central bank leaves rates unchanged, as expected

(Reuters) -India's key rate was left unchanged for a sixth straight meeting on Thursday, in line with expectations, as inflation remained above the central bank's 4% medium-term target while economic growth continued to be resilient.

The six-member monetary policy committee (MPC), consisting of three Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and three external members, left the key repo rate unchanged at 6.50%.

The committee said it would remain focused on 'withdrawal of accommodation', suggesting the central bank intends to keep monetary policy restrictive.

The Indian economy is expected to expand 7.3% in the year ending March 31, 2024 and the central bank projected growth of 7% in 2024-25, in line with the federal government's forecast.

COMMENTARY:

AURODEEP NANDI, INDIA ECONOMIST, NOMURA, MUMBAI

"This is the first time one of the monetary policy committee members has dissented in favour of a cut, suggesting a growing divide between external and internal RBI members on the policy trajectory."

SACHCHIDANAND SHUKLA, GROUP CHIEF ECONOMIST, LARSEN & TOUBRO, MUMBAI

"The strength of domestic economic momentum has given the RBI the latitude to remain patient and retain the luxury of staying put on repo rate and its stance."

"The RBI has avoided giving a signal to loosen financial conditions."

LAKSHMI IYER, CEO-INVESTMENT and STRATEGY, KOTAK ALTERNATE ASSET MANAGERS, MUMBAI

"No major worries expressed on the inflation front is comforting, but for food price fluctuations – the watch for global cues however continues."

"Liquidity lifeline from RBI to the banking system may continue as the fourth quarter tends to be tight one due to advance tax outflows, as also the impending general elections, which could also see currency in circulation going up."

"We expect bond yields to trade in a tight range, tracking U.S. bond yields."

SHILAN SHAH, DEPUTY CHIEF EM ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON

"With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months yet, we doubt the central bank will loosen policy until the second half of the year, later than almost all other major emerging markets."

SAMANTAK DAS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, JLL INDIA, MUMBAI

"India's residential (housing) markets in 2023 hit a historic peak. At the prevailing interest rates, we expect the residential sales market to clock a 15-18% year-over-year growth in 2024 too."

MADHAVI ARORA, LEAD ECONOMIST, EMKAY GLOBAL, MUMBAI

"The RBI's policy has been somewhat pegged to the Federal Reserve, specifically in the last two years, even as it formally targeted inflation. The swift turn of tone and action pivots of the RBI in the last two years have been influenced purely by global narrative. We do not see RBI preceding the Fed in rate cuts."

ANU AGGARWAL, PRESIDENT AND HEAD CORPORATE BANKING, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI

"The sustained pause in the repo rate is poised to benefit India's economic trajectory positively."

"Moreover, the remarkable growth in capital expenditure witnessed in FY24, coupled with robust capex push by the government, underscores a pivotal moment for economic resurgence."

UMESHKUMAR MEHTA, CIO, SAMCO MUTUAL FUND, MUMBAI

"We feel the interest rates have peaked and there are higher chances that this accommodative stance would shift in the latter half of the year, by when the interest rate cuts would begin."

"Despite the global headwinds, growth in the Indian economy has remained resilient above 7% and with this balanced fiscal status, we expect huge inflows into India in the coming months".

GARIMA KAPOOR, ECONOMIST, INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, ELARA CAPITAL, MUMBAI

"As expected, the MPC maintained status quo on policy rate as well as stance while continuing to focus on anchoring inflation towards 4% and guarding towards any unanticipated shocks emerging from food and supply chain disruptions."

"We do not see RBI changing stance before the first quarter of FY25 and see room for the first rate cut emerging only by the second quarter of FY25. We see a total of 75 bps rate cuts in the upcoming rate-cutting cycle."

UPASNA BHARDWAJ, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI

"The change in stance could follow towards the end of the first quarter of FY25 and subsequently, (we could see) shallow rate cuts starting in the back half of FY25."

ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI

"The RBI once again decided to keep the repo rates unchanged at 6.5%, thus extending the festive bonanza that it gave to the homebuyers in its last two policy announcements."

"Thus, homebuyers retain their advantage of relatively affordable home loan interest rates."

SAKSHI GUPTA, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM

"We expect the RBI to keep liquidity in deficit until transmission of past rate hikes is complete. The central bank is likely to change its stance in the first quarter of FY25 and start its rate cut cycle only by the second quarter of FY25."

"However, the chances of rate cuts coming in later than expected rather than sooner are increasing, given the RBI's cautiousness on inflation."

(Reporting by Rama Venkat, Anisha Ajith, Navamya Ganesh Acharya, Ashish Chandra, Kashish Tandon, Haripriya Suresh, Dhanya Skariachan in Bengaluru and Siddhi Nayak, Bhakti Tambe in Mumbai; Editing by Savio D'Souza)