NASCAR betting: Qualifying is very important if it's going to be another Martinsville snoozer

Don’t place any early bets on Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville (2 p.m. ET, NBC).

Thanks to the new car’s aerodynamic properties and its increased grip, the first race of the season at the half-mile track was a parade. The race featured just five lead changes and four cautions — the first two stages went caution-free and the only crash happened with just a handful of laps to go.

The five lead changes were the fewest at Martinsville since 2019 when Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. dominated and each led over 400 laps in the two races. The lack of lead changes reflected the overall lack of passing on track earlier this year and drivers are prepared for the same situation on Sunday.

Race favorite Chase Elliott said at Homestead that “nobody’s passing anybody” on Sunday. There was an August tire test at the track, but that was done in hot and sunny conditions. Sunday’s race is set to be on a day forecast to be cloudy and in the 50s. The racing you see on Sunday could look a lot like it did this spring.

“We didn’t lay any rubber down [in the corners] during the first race,” Kevin Harvick said. “I know we had some unique circumstances with rain and darkness and it was cold. I just hope it lays rubber down again like it did at the test. We know there’s a lot of shifting at Martinsville, and track position is going to be important.”

Yes, there will be shifting at Martinsville. That’s a concept that’s hard to get a grasp on if you’re a longtime NASCAR fan. The gear ratios in the new car have led drivers to shift at many tracks where they previously wouldn’t.

That's why you need to wait until Saturday's qualifying session to place your bets. Yes, the odds may change a bit, but track position could be so key at Martinsville that qualifying has an outsized impact on the race.

As a reminder, there are three spots available in the championship race on Sunday. Only Joey Logano has clinched his way into the final four. If one of the seven other playoff drivers wins at Martinsville, he’s in too and the remaining two spots will go to the two highest drivers in the points standings.

Here’s how those points standings look for everyone outside of Logano.

• Ross Chastain, 4,101 points

• Chase Elliott, 4,093

• William Byron, 4,087

• Denny Hamlin, 4,082

• Ryan Blaney, 4,069

• Christopher Bell, 4,054

• Chase Briscoe, 4,043

As always, the odds for the race are from BetMGM. Here’s what you need to know.

The favorites

• Chase Elliott (+600)

• Denny Hamlin (+700)

• Ryan Blaney (+800)

• William Byron (+800)

• Joey Logano (+900)

Elliott won this race in 2020 on his way to the title. He has eight top-10 finishes in 14 starts. Hamlin is the active wins leader at Martinsville with five and has 22 top-10 finishes in 33 starts. Blaney has the best average finish of any driver at 10.2 but hasn’t won at the track. Byron won the spring race earlier this year and Logano has one win and 15 top-10s in 27 starts.

Good mid-tier value

• Kyle Busch (+1400)

• Ross Chastain (+1400)

Busch has two wins and has finished in the top five in half of his 34 starts at the track. Chastain was one of the few drivers who worked his way through the field in the spring and finished fifth after starting 27th.

Don’t bet this driver

• Kyle Larson (+1200)

Martinsville has been a beguiling track for Larson. He has just three top 10s in 15 starts there.

Looking for a long shot?

• Brad Keselowski (+2800)

Keselowski isn’t a super long shot but has 12 top fives and 17 top 10s in 25 starts. RFK Racing has shown progress over the course of the season, too. He could run up near the front again this week.